Season Preview and Week 0 Picks

Getting Started

It's our favorite time of year again. Coaches walking around in visors and long-sleeve tee's barking orders as the thuds of pads fill the air. After a tumultuous off-season, college football is back. Like most millennial men, I think I know everything about college football and always joke about starting a podcast or a blog to share my thoughts. Rather than flooding my friends' text messages with my terrible gambling picks and favorite plays I am going to attempt to write a weekly blog with my thoughts to save everyone some time. Here I hope to share some of my favorite plays from the previous week, provide a quick breakdown of the week ahead, and share a few gambling picks and things I am watching. This fall will be a busy one. I am heading back to school, getting to stand by two of my best friends during their weddings, and hoping to be a good husband and dog dad. So bear with me as I ramble and let's have some fun...

Season Preview

Major Bowl Picks

It is important to start out with audacious picks that grab the viewer's attention right away. Please favorite these and text me at the start of 2023 to laugh in my face about how wrong I am.

National Champion: Ohio State

Wait a minute, isn't there another school we are all supposed to blindly pick until the former defensive back from West Virginia retires? We will get to that team rather quickly, but I am taking the Buckeyes to win it all. Sure, their defense was a sieve last year, but I bet they get that fixed (with the recruits they pull in they better). With Ryan Day calling the plays, Jaxon Smith-Njigba and Marvin Harrison Jr. catching passes from CJ Stroud, and perhaps the best running back in the land, TreVeyon Henderson, ripping off long gains I think the Buckeyes bring the CFP title back to the Midwest.

Runner-up: Alabama

Didn't want to get too far over my skis with the first blog. Bama has the best offensive player and best defensive player in the country returning. They make it back to the Natty and lose for the second straight year, this time out in LA.

Peach Bowl (semifinal): (1) Alabama over Clemson

Fiesta Bowl (semifinal): (2) Ohio State over Utah

Rose Bowl: USC over Michigan
Cotton Bowl: Notre Dame over Houston
Orange Bowl: Texas A&M over Pittsburgh
Sugar Bowl: Georgia over Oklahoma State

Conference Picks

ACC

Champion: Clemson

But hasn't Clemson fallen off? Maybe compared to Alabama, Georgia, and Ohio State, but they still went 10-3 last year with a QB who threw more picks than TD's. Let's not overthink this.

Runner-Up: Pittsburgh

Most Fun Team to Watch: Virginia

Team Total Where I'm Taking the Over: Clemson o10.5 (+100)

Team Total Where I'm Taking the Under: Miami u8.5 (+115)

Big 12

Champion: Oklahoma State

Runner-Up: Texas

Most Fun Team to Watch: Texas

This is the team that all the NBA fans should follow. The drama is amazing, it's like Real Housewives or The Bachelor. But on the field, they have the best running back, an all-time QB recruit (and another on the way).

Team Total Where I'm Taking the Over: Oklahoma State o8.5 (+105)

Team Total Where I'm Taking the Under: Texas Tech u5.5 (-110)

Big Ten

Champion: Ohio State

Runner-Up: Minnesota

I will never "Row the Boat" for PJ Fleck, but they will win the west this year. I don't trust Wisconsin's QB room to figure it out. Throw in Purdue losing in some weird way to a team they shouldn't and Nebraska being Nebraska and Iowa being Iowa and this is the default.

Most Fun Team to Watch: Purdue

Team Total Where I'm Taking the Over: Illinois o4.5 (-125)

Team Total Where I'm Taking the Under: Indiana u4 (+100)

Pac-12

Champion: Utah

The most physical team in the least physical conference (go look at draft numbers on PAC 12 linemen and front seven, it's bad). They do some weird things at night games out west, but I think the Utes get through most of it unscathed.

Runner-Up: Oregon

Most Fun Team to Watch: USC

Team Total Where I'm Taking the Over: Utah o9 (-125)

Team Total Where I'm Taking the Under: UCLA u8.5 (-115)

SEC

Champion: Alabama

Runner-Up: Georgia

Most Fun Team to Watch: Tennessee

Best endzone in the game and they will spend a lot of time in it. Heupel is a great offensive mind and they will need every point they can get with their defense. Enjoy the first game versus Pitt, that is an all-time uniform matchup.

Team Total Where I'm Taking the Over: Texas A&M o8.5 (-150)

Team Total Where I'm Taking the Under: Mississippi State u6.5 (+105)

Independent

Best Team: Notre Dame

Is this even a question? Freeman will have a rocky start in Columbus but the team, and all those future recruits, love him for a reason.

Most Fun Team to Watch: Army, BYU (tie)

Team Total Where I'm Taking the Over: Notre Dame o8.5 (-125)

American

Champion: Houston

Runner-Up: Cincinnati

Most Fun Team to Watch: Houston

Team Total Where I'm Taking the Over: SMU o7 (-105)

Team Total Where I'm Taking the Under: Navy u4.5 (-130)

Conference USA

Champion: Western Kentucky

Runner-Up: UTSA

Most Fun Team to Watch: UAB

Team Total Where I'm Taking the Over: Western Kentucky o8.5 (+120)

Team Total Where I'm Taking the Under: Rice u3.5 (-130)

Mid-American (MAC)

Champion: Toledo

Runner-Up: Miami (OH)

Most Fun Team to Watch: Northern Illinois

Team Total Where I'm Taking the Over: Miami o6.5 (-135)

Team Total Where I'm Taking the Under: Western Michigan u6.5 (-155)

Mountain West

Champion: Fresno State

Runner-Up: Air Force

Most Fun Team to Watch: Air Force

Team Total Where I'm Taking the Over: Fresno State o8.5 (-140)

Team Total Where I'm Taking the Under: San Diego State u7.5 (+100)

Sun Belt

Champion: Appalachian State

Runner-Up: Louisiana

Most Fun Team to Watch: Coastal Carolina

Mullets, teal, eye black, and the spread option. I love watching McCall operate the scheme and they bring a plucky attitude on both sides of the ball as they are usually undersized. Always worth the toggle over to CBSSN.

Team Total Where I'm Taking the Over: Appalachian State o8.5 (-120)

Team Total Where I'm Taking the Under: Arkansas State u5 (-135) 

Favorite Play

If you talked to me at all last fall, you know I was enamored with the Wake Forest Demon Deacons (note: their QB Sam Hartman is out indefinitely, my thoughts and prayers are with him and his family). I am a sucker for a smashmouth running game coupled with deep play action shots and this team combined them in a unique and fun way. Check out the play below in their thrilling loss to UNC.

Wake Forest "rides" the mesh point of a read option (e.g., when the ball is in the RB's stomach before the handoff) longer than most teams in their RPO and play action plays (and college teams can ride the mesh point for a long time because of the college rule that linemen can be 3 yards downfield when the pass is released). Sam Hartman, Wake's QB, holds the mesh and actually moves TOWARDS the line of scrimmage before he pulls the ball and throws it on many plays (and Wake scored a bunch last year, go watch the highlights). The Demon Deacons utilize tight splits (i.e., their offensive line is close together) to muddy up the middle of the field and allowing for time for Hartman to hold the mesh point. This makes the linebackers and safeties have to commit the first move and gives Hartman, and his offensive weapons, the upper hand.

Let's start by breaking down what the secondary is showing pre-snap with arrows showing what they will be doing.

1. Short-side corner: This corner is coming on a blitz. In college, the hashmarks are wider than the NFL, allowing the corner a quicker path to the backfield. This corner shows man alignment. He is face up on the receiver, and although he peaks into the backfield he is doing a decent job disguising the blitz. He is positioned on the inside of the receiver, which does give away that he is not doubling the WR with the safety (2).
2. Short-side safety: This safety is closer to the line of scrimmage than the other safety. A lot of teams run single-high safety coverages against run heavy teams so that the other safety is closer to the line of scrimmage. This safety will attempt to cover the WR that the corner is leaving on the blitz and you can see he is cheating a bit by looking over towards that receiver and positioning his hips in that direction. Since there is no other receiver to that side besides the RB, this could be alerting Hartman the corner is coming.
3. Wide-side safety: This safety is the single high safety, meaning he is in charge of covering the deep middle-third of the field. Since the Deacons have three receivers to the wide side of the field he will widen a bit at the snap.
4. Wide-side corner: This corner is showing a classic cover 3 look. He is facing the QB, which alerts Hartman that at least to this side of the field it is zone. He is also seven yards away from the WR, so most likely he has a deep third and this is not cover 2, in which he would be pressing the WR.

This second image shows just after the ball has been snapped. A few items to note:

1. The corner is directly in Hartman's eyesight. When he pulls the ball the RB will immediately pick up the blitz and give Hartman the time he needs.
2. The safety actually came downhill two steps and is now running parallel to the line of scrimmage. If the WR runs a go route (spoiler: he does) the safety is vulnerable to get beat deep and will need to the deep safety to come over and help in time (spoiler 2: he doesn't).
3. Check out how muddled up the line of scrimmage is. Those tight splits keep penetrating defensive linemen at bay and deliver a huge pocket for the QB and a chance for the RB to bounce outside if he were to get the handoff.

Ah, six points, the thing that comes before the Extra Point (I'll see myself out).

1. The safety got beat, he let the receiver get even with him and all he could do was chase. The ball is even thrown back towards the middle of the field and he can't recover.
2. The other safety had SO MUCH FIELD to cover to make it back over to where the ball is thrown. He makes an attempt (note in the YouTube clip how quickly he "flips his hips" when he sees where Hartman is looking before the throw).

Week 0 Preview

Favorite Power 5 Game - Duquesne at Florida State

Florida State has been through some wild times since Jimbo left. This is supposed to be a warmup game for them before they play a night game at LSU (yikes). QB Jordan Travis is an exceptional athlete but not a consistent passer who has a strong defense on the other side of the ball. I am looking to see if he can get into a rhythm and build some drives together before they head down to Baton Rouge.

Favorite Group of 5 Game - Vanderbilt at Hawaii

Love the nightcap here on a weird weekend. First off, Hawaii is bringing back the great Timmy Chang to be their coach (go watch his highlights on YouTube). I cannot wait to see what the Rainbow Warriors' offense looks like. Also worth watching is Vanderbilt's win total at 2.5. The Commodores' four out-of-conference games this year are Hawaii, Elon, Wake Forest, and Northern Illinois (and then they play the regular season in the SEC which is uh, good). If they don't win this game, and they are at least touchdown favorites, they will not hit the over on their win total.

3 and Out

Season Totals: Spread Picks (0-0) +0.0 Units, O/U Picks (0-0) +0.0 Units, ML Picks (0-0) +0.0 Units

Spread Pick of the Week: Illinois -10 (-110) vs Wyoming

I am buying the Illini this year, I think they will be physical and win some close games they lost last year. With how much they run the ball this is a dangerous spread, but I think they squeak out a cover here in Week 0.

Over/Under Pick of the Week: Nebraska vs Northwestern u50.5 (-110)

I think the morning game will be a rock fight. Northwestern is another Big Ten West grit-and-grind team and Nebraska always plays to the level of their opponent.

Moneyline Underdog Pick of the Week: Hawaii (+200) vs Vanderbilt

Vandy is a touchdown favorite but it's not like they are a wagon themselves. Hawaii will be fired up to have the nation watching their new coach's debut and when you are built to have explosive plays you can make upsets happen.