Week 1: We're Back

 We're Back

No, not like that. 

Labor Day weekend is upon us! This Thursday, we welcome back a full weekend of college football with a Backyard Brawl in Pittsburgh and a blackout in West Lafayette (full disclosure, Boiler Up). Throw in a big "neutral site" game in Atlanta (Eugene, OR is a bit further away than Athens, GA), four historic programs facing off in night games in Columbus and Baton Rouge, and Clemson finishing the week showing us whether or not they are back, and we have an amazing weekend ahead of us. Let's take a quick look back at last Saturday and then dive in...

A Week (0) in Review

Favorite Game: Northwestern vs Nebraska

Never bet against a Fitzgerald in Dublin I guess. This game was the type of insanity that attracts us college football diehards to the sport. For all the puking that Nebraska's offensive linemen did in camp this summer, you can tell that their defense did not work on wrapping up (more on this as a larger trend further down). I feel for my Nebraska friends, but this is just getting comical. Scott Frost, a golden child from a golden era, keeps finding ways to lose close games. In the 3rd quarter Nebraska forces a punt, scores to go up 21-17, forces a fumble on the first play of Northwestern's drive, and scores again to go up 28-17 with all the momentum after a rough first half. What is the next play? An onside kick that gives the Wildcats a short field for a score and it's all downhill from there. I get going for the kill shot and not playing to lose, but when you have the more talented roster you are only making brash decisions if you don't trust the game plan you started with.

Favorite Uniform: Northwestern Wildcats

Official threads for Saturday.

🟣(🇮🇪)🟣🟣#GoCats | @cfbireland pic.twitter.com/gkBW46rrnL

— Northwestern Football (@NUFBFamily) August 25, 2022

Yeah, I know we are talking a lot about one game that was between two mediocre teams. But we take what the football gods give us, including these beautiful helmet decals the Wildcats wore. Such a subtle touch that looked beautiful on the soccer pitch grass, big fan.

Other Notes from the Weekend

Illinois looked really good running the football against Wyoming. Their new OC, Barry Lunney Jr., pairs pre-snap motion with a power run game really well. In a lot of big school / small school matchups noticing where the first point of contact is helps make sense of some overall pretty worthless tape. The running back wasn't just making people miss, their scheme was being executed at a high level... North Carolina looked like their new QB, UNC royal family Drake Maye looked good running and passing. Let's see if the week 0 was a good tune-up for Appalachian State... Well, I didn't get a bad beat on the Vanderbilt game, they just flat out rolled in that 3rd quarter... I enjoy the Conference USA using week 0 to get some conference games going and trying to bring some eyeballs to their conference... Florida State completely overwhelmed a lesser opponent but Baton Rouge will be a bit different... UCONN showed some life after being one of the worst teams in college football history over the past several years.. A general note: lots of big rushing numbers, lots of missed tackles, and lots of forced fumbles. Are we just giving up on learning to wrap up in the limited practice time we are given and just focusing on punching the ball out? I know that rules are skewed heavily against defense, but I still think we can try. Watch Alabama in Week 2 against Texas. Nick Saban has a style of tackling that he teaches religiously, and Alabama is relentless in their execution. Something to watch when they play Texas, who isn't used to those vice grips.

Favorite Play of the Week

Remember that sequence of plays in the 3rd quarter of the Northwestern vs Nebraska game that I talked about at the top of the post? We are going to that Northwestern fumble, because a lot happens before the fumble that I want to talk about.

In American football, you need seven of the eleven offensive players standing on the line of scrimmage. Only the two players on the outside of those seven are eligible to run down the field and catch a pass. Usually, teams do not make one of their offensive linemen eligible, but it has started to become a tool that spread teams are using to force defenses to line up in a way that gives a quarterback an easy read or gives linemen a defined block.

Apologies for all the colors and numbers, but let's talk through everything pre-snap:

• Green circles: these show the two end men on the line of scrimmage (LOS). Nothing crazy at the top of the screen, it is a wide receiver. Note at the bottom is NU's left tackle, Peter Skoronski, one of the top tackle's in the upcoming draft. While I am sure he can catch a football, he is not the receiving threat that a receiver or tight end would be, and the defense adjusts accordingly.
• Red "x": this is one of NU's tight ends. Since the receiver at the top is "covering" him by being on the LOS, he is not eligible to run down field to catch the ball. While this means the defense doesn't have to cover him, they do have to respect his blocking in the run game, which is why defender 3 is outside of him.
• Defenders 1-8: Note that there are 8 defenders "in the box". The defense is responding to the offense lining up in a formation where they are going to run, most likely to the right side. Defenders 1-5 are on the right side of the offense, while 6-8 are on the left side. 8 is a smaller defensive back compared to the linemen (1, 2, 6) and linebackers (3, 4, 5, 7).
• Yellow arrow: NU has a second tight end in the game, off the line of scrimmage, and they bring him in motion to the left side. This is used to widen defenders 7 and 8 and create more running room.

Northwestern calls a counter run to the left side, away from the "strength" of the formation. This catches the defense out of position and creates the opportunity for a big gain if executed well.

• The backside guard and tackle, dots 1 and 2 respectively, pull to the play side. 1 is going to kick out dot 3 and 2 is going to run through the hole created by 1 to go block 4.
• The play side tackle (7), ensures the center has the block secured on the LOS and moves up to block 8 while the tight end we saw motion (5) is heading up to block the other linebacker (6).
• The running back is taking the hand off and will aim to run inside of the kickout block and around the block by 2 and won't face any resistance until he meets the safety 20 yards (!) downfield

Poetry in motion.

Remember how I brought up no one even tries to tackle, they just go for the fumble? Watch the safety's arms on the hit, they don't even attempt to wrap up on the ball carrier. The safety uses his helmet and shoulder to punch the ball out, but if he misses or bounces off, it could've been 6 points. Something to continue to watch out for this season.

Week 1 Preview

There are some really fun games this weekend, of which I cannot highlight them all (remember, this is not my day job). Below are two games that I think will be fun that may not get highlighted as much. If you are watching Georgia vs Oregon on Saturday afternoon (hint: you should), then I give you a player to watch. Lastly, we have to talk a bit about the biggest game of the weekend, Ohio State vs Notre Dame. 

Favorite Power 5 Game - #23 Cincinnati at #19 Arkansas

Cincinnati is technically a G5 team, but they are coming to the Big 12 soon. They also made the playoffs last year and get to go on the road to SEC country and show what they have for an encore. Both of these teams run defenses that keep them in games. Arkansas played a lot of 3 deep coverage last year to keep everyone in front of them and tempt young QB's into making mistakes (go watch what they did to those poor Longhorn QB's last year). Cincinnati lost Desmond Ridder, a star veteran QB. Does the new starter have what it takes to make smart plays in a hostile environment? I'm not sure, which could lead to a ton of short fields for a defense that lost a top 5 pick in Sauce Gardner. Their head coach, Luke Fickell, is a great defensive mind, can he compensate now that he doesn't have one side of the field on lockdown? KJ Jefferson, the Hogs' QB, is a stud. He does not turn the ball over, he can run, and he operates the Arkansas system that loves to get physical very well. Should be fun to see where these two teams are at on Saturday.

Favorite Group of 5 Game - Army at Coastal Carolina

We know my affinity for Coastal: their offense is fun to watch, they have mullets, their turf makes you check your TV's settings, and their QB "pisses teal" (probably should see a doctor there, bud). But what about Army? They run the triple option, sometimes never pass in a game, and have drives that can last longer than an entire quarter. They also have an edge rusher, Andre Carter II, who may be Army's first 1st round pick sense the Harry Truman. What does all this mean? This game is gonna be weird, and that is the best kind of G5 game.

Favorite Player to Watch - Brock Bowers (TE - UGA) vs Oregon

This dude had a freshman season for the ages. He's huge, he's quick, he has hands like butter, and he scored a RUSHING touchdown last year. He probably could've been a first round pick in last year's draft. If you watch this game on Saturday, you will hear a lot about Georgia's TE room. They have three studs and will use them all over the field to block and catch the ball. But Brock is the best of the bunch, and Oregon has a freak sophomore of their own linebacker Noah Sewell (yes, he is a famous younger brother). Oregon's coach was Georgia's defensive coordinator last year and saw Bowers in practice every day. What does he do to neutralize Stetson Bennett's security blanket? I can't wait to find out.

Biggest Game of the Weekend: #5 Notre Dame at #2 Ohio State

How awesome is it that we have a huge week 1 matchup and it is not at a neutral site? Notre Dame coach Marcus Freeman heads to his alma mater to battle the Buckeyes under the lights. GameDay is there, Bronny James may be there, and it is a 17 point spread. The crazy part? I think Ohio State will cover. Notre Dame has built up a top program just under the CFP contenders and I think they should get more credit than they do. But the difference between the top teams contending for titles and the next group will be evident from game one. To me, Notre Dame just doesn't have the athletes outside to compete with Ohio State. They have an amazing offensive line, a top TE, and a great running game. But Ohio State gets chunk plays, and they get them in bunches. Building sustainable marches down the field is difficult against the top teams, even if Ohio State doesn't have a Bosa brother or Chase Young out there. Can Notre Dame get a TD drive of five plays or less? I'm not so sure, but I guarantee Stroud and Co. do, and to me that is the difference. I think Notre Dame is a program on the rise, and they already are a top ten program in the sport. But the difference between Ohio State, Alabama, and Georgia and the rest of the sport is as wide as it has ever been and I think we see that on Saturday night.

3 and Out

Season Totals: Spread Picks (1-0) +0.9 Units, O/U Picks (0-1) -1.0 Units, ML Picks (0-1) -1.0 Units

Spread Pick of the Week: Appalachian State +1 (-110) vs North Carolina

How are all of the Appalachian State fans going to cheer against their basketball school? All jokes aside, this is a really fun week 1 game. Appalachian State is more than the team that won at the Big House in 2006; this is a legit program. I think they get the job done at home and give everyone something to watch during the early games.

Over/Under Pick of the Week: #3 Georgia vs #11 Oregon u52.5 (-110)

I know that Georgia lost a lot on defense, but they still have a ton of talent and limited Clemson to an all-time bad offensive performance last year in the opener. Bo Nix will do some crazy things in Pac-12 After Dark, but I don't see him coming back to SEC country and doing much. Georgia can put up points, but I feel like they will control the line of scrimmage, run the ball down Oregon's throat, and get out with a win where they may cover (-17!) and still not hit the over.

Moneyline Underdog Pick of the Week: Purdue (+145) vs Penn State

They say, "don't bet with your heart", but I say, "my heart and brain are parking in the same garage". I am not the biggest believer in PSU QB Sean Clifford, and I hope that Aidan O'Connell picks up where he left off and the Boilers keep building momentum. Pumped to see a blackout game in Ross-Ade, be sure to check this game out if you are watching the Backyard Brawl on Thursday night.