Week 4: Survive and Advance and 1st Quarter Awards

A lot of survive and advance for teams this weekend, at least outside of the Big 3. I'm not gonna lie, the noon hour had some doldrums whether it be blowouts or just bad football. But then with the absurd Purdue vs Syracuse ending we were off to the races. Hail Mary's, B1G vs SEC, Oregon's redemption, we had it all. Let's dive in.

A Week (3) in Review

Favorite Game: Wake Forest vs Liberty

A lot of close games this weekend that could've taken this slot. But I'm going with the game that was entertaining from start to finish. You could be excused for not flipping over to the ACC Network for this one but Hugh Freeze's squad came to play (much to the chagrin of my picks last week). Wake could not get the running game going, only having 21 rushing yards. This led to some turnovers in the passing game as they were one dimensional. Liberty scored with just over a minute to go and decided to go for 2 and the win. They ran the Philly Special, everyone's go-to 2 point play nowadays, and Wake sniffed it out. The receiver decided to run for it rather than throw it up and was stopped short. Wake didn't think they would be in a dogfight, but they got one and battled through.

Favorite Uniform: Tulane and Kansas State (tie)

The matchup between K-State and Tulane this weekend is going to have some 🔥🔥🔥 helmets

Which one is your favorite?

(via @KStateFB, @GreenWaveFB) pic.twitter.com/lKfrOLs7vK

— FOX College Football (@CFBONFOX) September 16, 2022

Looking fly in obscurity. A 17-10 upset snoozer but at least the helmets looked great. Kansas State's logo was a throwback to one used in the 50's through the 70's but never placed on the helmet. Tulane's Green Wave logo is one of my favorites in the sport and placing it on the baby blue is absolutely gorgeous. Well done.

Other Notes from the Weekend

Georgia took South Carolina's Spencer Rattler's will to play football yesterday and Brock Bowers did a bit of everything. Give credit to Georgia for not resting on their laurels and having a fantastic start to the season... Ohio State gave up some points to Toledo but they have the best offense in the country... JJ McCarthy brings a confidence and athletic upside to the Michigan offense they have not had since Harbaugh took over. Credit to the Michigan faithful for giving McNamara a standing ovation but booing him last week was not acceptable for a guy who led the team to a victory over Ohio State and the playoffs last year... Louisville should always play on Friday nights, the mayhem is a great way to start the weekend... Appalachian State survived on a Hail Mary to avoid the letdown against Troy. If you're not watching the Sun Belt you're missing out... Bo Nix balled out and Oregon seems to be getting over their rough start to the season. BYU will have to wait until next year for another CFP run... Purdue has no rushing attack and it leads to no control in the 4th quarter. Sometimes they hang on for the win but this is something they have to figure out. Credit to Syracuse for surviving in a game where they were thoroughly outgained, the penalties in the last minute were embarrassing as a Purdue fan... Oklahoma kicked Nebraska when they were down. The defense is tight under Venables and the offense behind Gabriel is looking great. Now Nebraska has to decide between Urban Meyer and Bronco Mendenhall for their signs every week... LSU's offense is painful to watch but the speed at the skill positions helped them get a win. 5 stars everywhere does help... Kansas is 3-0 for the first time since 2009 and worth a watch. They run a lot of triple option out of the pistol and Jalon Daniels is must-watch tv... KJ Jefferson righted the ship and Arkansas got the win. Montana State gave them everything they could and showed the FCS is now slouch... Penn State rolled at Auburn. I'm not sure this game means a whole lot but it has to feel good for the Nittany Lions to go 2-0 in their series... A lot of teams seem to be having their edge rushers stand up all the time now. I'm guessing this is so they can get their hands up fast on the quick passing game and to at least present the option of dropping back so offenses have to scheme where pressure is coming from. Just something to watch the further we go in the season...

Favorite Play of the Week

As I alluded to in the notes, Kansas is 3-0 and playing better than they have in a long time. Part of that is belief and scheme and part of that is having talent, particularly a gamebreaker at quarterback. They use the option attack, something that has a storied history in college football dating back to the 1940's and evolving with the times. Kansas is utilizing the option out of the pistol to attack downhill and then let Jalon Daniels push the boundary. Here is a great TD that encapsulates that perfectly.

Kansas utilizes the short side of the field and their formation to capture the edge and give Daniels running room for the score. They've set this play up all game and are happy to use it now, let's dive in.

• 1: Kansas starts the play by sending the slot receiver in deep motion towards the wide side of the field. Since they have an H back towards the wide side it looks like they are going to run the triple option, with the slot receiver as the pitch man, towards the wide side. This is a play they have been running all game.
• 2: The outside receiver has quite the tight split. Kansas choose to do this so the defender furthest outside (the outside corner) is brought closer to the formation. Could they be doing this to gain an advantage to the outside? I think so.
• 3: The nickel corner is sprinting across the formation with the motion man. This is a dead giveaway that they are in man coverage. Since Kansas has been running the ball quite well Houston was in man coverage to simplify the back end of the defense and allow the front seven to play coming downhill. This also gives Kansas numbers to the short side if they want to go that direction.

• 1: Kansas snaps the ball and is running a read option away from the motion. The running back is coming downhill, the linemen are blocking for inside zone, and Daniels is looking at the end man on the line of scrimmage to decide whether he wants to keep the ball or hand it off. The H-back is coming across the formation to block.
• 2: The end man on the line of scrimmage does a decent job of not giving a defined read. Normally, if he comes down towards where the running back is heading it's a definite pull and keep for the quarterback. But since he comes down but stays at the line of scrimmage it is muddled. Every option play leaves one person unblocked for the quarterback to read. Here you can see the offensive tackle comes down and engages another lineman.
• 3: The wide receiver engages the corner and seems to be angling him inside.
• 4: Both the linebacker and safety are coming downhill for the running back. Obviously the straightest path towards the end zone is right up the middle but this will leave them susceptible to an outside keeper.

• 1: The quarterback keeps the ball and takes off for the outside.
• 2: The defensive end stayed home but didn't come up field. Normally he could maybe recover on this but Daniels is quite the athlete and will leave him in the dust.
• 3: The H-back knows his QB is the better athlete so he does not get bogged down with the lineman. He's running up field to seal the outside. The receiver is working to keep the corner inside as well.
• 4: Both of the linebackers are engaged with offensive linemen and the safeties are caught inside.

• 1: The defensive end recovers quite well but this play goes beyond the X's and O's to the Jimmy's and Joe's. The quarterback is the better athlete and gets to the pylon.
• 2: The receiver finishes the block on the corner and moves on to the safety. The H-back is there too providing a clear path to the endzone. 6 points incoming.

1st Quarter Season Awards

I'm counting Week 0 as its own week and since college football has fifteen weeks we are... one quarter of the way done! Time flies when you are having fun. I wanted to do a quick awards section to acknowledge the awesome things that have happened so far. Please note that all of this will most likely change, otherwise we would go do something productive with our Saturday's. Nevertheless, here is how I see things a quarter of the way through.

National Title Favorite: Georgia

Did Georgia get better from last year? These guys play with an attitude and look like they want to embarrass everyone that lines up across from them. The offense has been taken to another level and the defense that lost so many draft picks has not missed a step. Could we have a rare repeat champion?

CFP Remaining 3: Ohio State, Alabama, Michigan

Next 2: Oklahoma, USC

The Next 2 has quite a range but I will go with the hot names in the sport. Oklahoma State, Kentucky, Arkansas, and Clemson all have a claim to be somewhere on the list. Bring on the hate, a lot of games left and I'm sure the halfway point will be different.

Heisman Favorite: Stetson Bennett (QB - Georgia)

The Heisman is all about narrative. A former walk-on wins a national title as a game manager and now takes his game to the next level? I'll take that over the guys listed below. If he does win, hopefully he has improved his public speaking. Caleb Williams is second on my list and is balling out on the west coast. This should be a fun run.

Others to Watch: Caleb Williams (QB - USC), CJ Stroud (QB - Ohio State), Jalon Daniels (QB - Kansas), Hendon Hooker (QB - Tennessee), Bryce Young (QB - Alabama), Blake Corum (RB - Michigan), KJ Jefferson (QB - Arkansas)

Caleb Williams is probably the favorite in most peoples' eyes, but I like Bennett. Seems like you have to be a QB to win anymore, but if Corum can have a high touchdown total he may steal some votes.

Best Game: Alabama vs Texas

I know, this is chalky, but this game had everything! It was also Fox's most-watched regular season game ever, so America is on my side. The talent on the field was incredible and both the high's and the low's were exciting. I know we remember endings of games, but for four quarters this game was incredible theatre.

Honorable Mentions: North Carolina vs Appalachian State, Utah vs Florida, Marshall vs Notre Dame, UTSA vs Houston, Troy vs Appalachian State

I guess this comes down to high level of play versus chaos. I love both games but prefer the high level of play flavor.

Week 4 Preview

Favorite Power 5 Game: Clemson vs Wake Forest

Maybe this is why Wake Forest wasn't the most sharp on Saturday? Clemson is still working out the kinks in their offense and have a road conference game early in the season. Could this be a repeat of last year's NC State loss? Wake will have to run the ball for that to be an option. But it will be fun to see what Hartman can do against Clemson's stellar defensive line.

Also Worth Watching: Wisconsin vs Ohio State

Favorite Group of 5 Game: TCU vs SMU

Yeah, I know TCU is in the Big 12. But these teams are so close to each other and put each other on the schedule, something that doesn't happen all the time anymore in college football. TCU's coach is also SMU's former coach, there is a lot of crossover in the rivalry. Both teams average more than 40 points so enjoy the fireworks.

Also Worth Watching: Coastal Carolina vs Georgia State

Favorite Player to Watch: DJ Uiagalelei (QB - Clemson) vs Wake Forest

Do we have a quarterback controversy at Clemson? Cade Klubnik has not lit the world on fire in his limited playing time, but people don't seem to have the confidence that DJ is improving after last season. Yes, the stats look better, but who have they played? DJ can shut all the critics up this week if he plays well in a tough road environment against a ranked opponent.

Also Worth Watching: KJ Jefferson (QB - Arkansas) vs Texas A&M

Biggest Game of the Week: Florida vs Tennessee

Florida has been a hot and cold team this year and they head into Rocky Top. Can Anthony Richardson rekindle the magic he had in week 1? Hendon Hooker and the Vols will be ready. This is a great rivalry and both QB's could be defined by it when they enter the draft (see: Peyton Manning). In the final hoorah of the SEC on CBS they are showing all the fun ones.

Also Worth Watching: Arkansas vs Texas A&M

3 and Out

Season Total: (5-7) -1.7 Units

Spread Picks (2-2) -0.2 Units, O/U Picks (1-3) -2.1 Units, ML Picks (2-2) +0.6 Units

One quarter of the way through and it's time to look in the mirror. Over/under picks have not been my friend. I am adjusting to just be my favorite three picks of the week. I will still track bets across the three types but will have an overall total as well. 

1st Pick of the Week: Arkansas ML (+110) vs Texas A&M

This line took awhile to be set because it feels wrong that Arkansas should be dogs but that is the power of the 12th Man. Texas A&M has to figure out something to do on offense but they do have big studs up front on defense. Can KJ Jefferson weather the storm and get the running game going? If he does, he's my new Heisman favorite and Arkansas is in great shape as they face all the top teams in the SEC West.

2nd Pick of the Week: North Carolina ML (+100) vs Notre Dame

Notre Dame had some offensive issues last week against Cal and North Carolina has none of those. However, UNC's defense is a sieve, giving up double what ND normally scores. I'm gonna guess that North Carolina scores enough and Notre Dame can't keep up in this one.

3rd Pick of the Week: Michigan -17.5 (-110) vs Maryland

Maryland battled with SMU all weekend and Michigan hasn't played anyone, so why take the big line? Michigan is rolling on offense right now and they are getting pressure at a high rate for replacing Hutchinson and Ojabo. Can Maryland keep up in a track meet? I think the good vibes keep happening in Ann Arbor before the scary trip to Iowa next week.