Week 10: Spooky Season

Hope everyone had a great Halloween weekend and welcome to November football. The college football slate stuck to the theme of the weekend and it was a terrifying experience for some top teams and their fans. Grab a handful of candy and let's settle in.

A Week (9) in Review

Favorite Game: USC vs Arizona

We head out to the desert this week for my favorite game of the week. Crazy things happen in Tucson and every year there were points to go around (and the over of 76! hit). Caleb Williams threw touchdowns of every variety; on schedule, off schedule, finger breakers, he had it all working. Unfortunately for the Trojan faithful their defense let the Wildcats stick around. USC relied heavily on a lot of turnover luck early in the season but have been less consistent as the year has gone on. Give Jayden de Laura credit, he made plays with his feet and arm and kept this one close for a fun game.

Favorite Uniform: Tennessee Volunteers

𝗗𝗮𝗿𝗸𝗻𝗲𝘀𝘀 𝗥𝗲𝗶𝗴𝗻𝘀#GBO 🍊#DICKSHouseofSportKNX pic.twitter.com/5sUrIG6uSq

— Tennessee Football (@Vol_Football) October 25, 2022

I have to admit, I have not been a huge fan of every school doing a blackout this year even if black is not a color they have. But orange and black on Halloween night is pretty cool and the Vols made Will Levis go through a house of terrors. We shall see if they can do the same against the Bulldogs next weekend. 

Other Notes from the Weekend

The weekday games had some close calls with Utah and NC State barely surviving against inferior opponents and East Carolina going into Provo and beating BYU. Hats off to the Pirates for getting the win and for the freshman kicker for sinking it... Ohio State seems to stall out sometimes in their offense but credit to them for figuring things out. JT Tuimoloau may be the next great Buckeyes defensive end and had a rare performance against the Nittany Lions... Tennessee took it to the Wildcats and Will Levis will hate this tape come draft season. A lot has been made about the Vols secondary but everyone held up well in this game... Going to Morgantown is a tough task but it looked like everyone was out tailgating for homecoming and not in the stadium by noon. It will be interesting to see where the CFP committee puts the Horned Frogs... Georgia bullied the Gators around in Jacksonville and credit to them for not looking ahead. Be sure to watch this weekend and see if Bowers can have more circus catches... Oregon seems to be legit and the PAC-12 has to hope them and USC don't look again before their championship... Oklahoma State had one of the worst top 10 losses ever. This is a team that has been exhausted but it knocks them likely out of conference contention... Sticking with the theme Wake Forest was terrible as well. Louisville has some dangerous athletes and it clicked Saturday. Can they build some consistency?... Ole Miss went into Aggieland and got the close win. The SEC West has the best coaches and Lane Kiffin showed it isn't just Texas A&M that is annoyed by Jimbo... Oklahoma ran one of the coolest fake field goals ever in their win, definitely worth a watch... Hats off to anyone who watched the UVA vs Miami 4OT and no TD game... Iowa's offense got rolling because the Wildcats are bad bad this year... The Sun Belt and American provide consistently crazy outcomes. I know the big games get most of the press but definitely a fun couple of leagues to track... I didn't like the Wolverines taking deep shots late against Michigan State but I get the desire to stick it to your rival, especially when they have been chippy all night. But none of that condones what some Michigan State players did in the tunnel. Hopefully law enforcement and Mel Tucker can work quickly to reprimand those involved. All of that said, Michigan has to figure out a way to not stall out in the red zone if they want to get to wear they are capable of going. JJ seems really successful running downhill but was always getting calls to go east and west inside the 20. Could Michigan install a few RPO's to use their quick inside receivers and the interest that Corum draws? Credit to Bryan Wyche for the suggestion while we were in the student section watching the game...

Favorite Play of the Week

Last week in the notes I mentioned that a lot of teams are running wheel routes in the red zone and having great success with it. Running backs have gotten way better at catching the ball than they used to be on average. All summer long they are at 7-on-7 camps and catching passes and this is to their long-term health advantage. The beauty of throwing the ball to your running back is he is usually your best offensive athlete and you are getting him the ball in space. The blows these running backs take inside the tackle box are brutal. By getting them in space and letting them just have to make one guy miss in space you allow your best weapon to get a touch that is easier on his body and could produce a bigger play than the inside zone. But in order for this to work they have to be able to catch the ball.

Here we look at a play by Illinois where they do just that and get six on Nebraska. Things happening quickly in the red zone and we will talk through how Nebraska tried to communicate but lost Chase Brown in the action. Brown leads the NCAA in rushing and his physical presence is a big reason why Illinois is the best team in the Big Ten West. But Illinois' amazing play caller, Barry Lunney Jr., does a phenomenal job of not just relying on his best athletes to make plays but he actually puts them in position to succeed.

• Starting off we see the corners (dots 1 and 2) pressed up closer to the line of scrimmage versus the receivers, but we will see that change.
• Chase Brown (dot 4) is on the opposite side of the quarterback than the tight end (dot 3). Running backs normally take handoffs going across the quarterback's face and so having the extra down lineman be on the opposite side is advantageous. It also sets him up to run a wheel route to the short side of the field as we shall see.
• The defense responds to the threat of the running formation but putting a ton of people up close to stop the run (red box).

• The receiver (dot 1) comes in motion and the corner (dot 2) slides back, showing zone. This is hopes of reading two things: it is highly likely the receiver is going to "crack" one of the linebackers in a run block or he is going to run a crossing route. The corner wants to be able to pass him off if he runs away or be ready to stop the run. 
• You can tell the defense has a lot of stress on them because they are doing a lot of extra communication. See the safety (dot 3) yelling at the corner? They have keys that something is coming and are working to talk through it. The hard part for defenses is they never know when the ball will be snapped so they have to figure things out quickly.

• It's a pass play and the slot receiver on the short side and the lone receiver on the wide side are running drags across each other in what is called a "mesh" concept. Both outside receivers on the short side are doing a form of crossers in this (dot 1) and are bringing the corner and nickel back down with them. They do not do a great job of passing off the receivers to the linebackers and safety (dot 3) and allow Brown to escape outside (dot 2).

• We have a whole bunch of people in the middle of the field (yellow circle) and Brown running up the sideline with no one watching (dot 1). The reason teams run the wheel route to the short side is the running back can get out to the sideline and up the field quickly. If it is man coverage normally a linebacker has to fight through everyone to get to him. Here in zone no one passes off their man to cover him.
• Want to see why throwing a lot of differently looks at a defense is important? Look at the safety (dot 2). There is so much happening around him and he is just frozen where he took the snap and watching the receiver opposite him run a crossing route. I'm not entirely sure what he was supposed to be doing but that doesn't feel right.

• Easy six; Brown doesn't get hit and you reward his hard work all season with a stress-free paydirt celebration.

Week 10 Preview

Favorite Power 5 Game: North Carolina vs Virginia

The Oldest Rivalry in the South is kicking off at noon to give us something to ease into the day. Virginia's offense has been blah and boring this year, I'm starting to think the Clemson offense they run doesn't work if you don't have Sammy Watkins running routes. But North Carolina decided this year they wouldn't play defense and just let Drake Maye cook on offense. This will be a visually pleasing game with both uniforms having great colors and on the natural grass it will be beautiful. Hope you have your khakis and oxford shirt ironed, enjoy the game.

Also Worth Watching: Florida State vs Miami

Favorite Group of 5 Game: MACtion

Do you not know what to watch on Tuesdays and Wednesdays during football season? You no longer have to worry about that because MACtion is back! Kicking off with the Funcie Cardinals on Tuesday night we will have special teams gaffes, no under being safe, and "We Want Bama" signs blessing our televisions on week nights. Sorry all prior weeknight obligations, you have to wait until after Thanksgiving now.

Also Worth Watching: Appalachian State vs Coastal Carolina

Favorite Player to Watch: Brad Roberts (RB - Air Force) vs Army

An early kickoff in this service academy battle but both teams will be up for this. Brad Roberts totes the rock consistently for the Falcons and pushes piles and trucks defensive backs on his way to over 900 yards this year. Army has been giving up more points than they normally do but they also have been scoring more. Can we get a triple option shootout? If so, Roberts could have another multi-touchdown performance.

Also Worth Watching: Kelee Ringo (DB - Georgia) vs Tennessee

Biggest Game of the Week: Tennessee vs Georgia

Expect anything different? This game has so many implications and will come with all the pageantry that we love about SEC football. Can Hendon Hooker go between the hedges and make Kirby's defense dance? The Gators moved the ball on Georgia last weekend and I think the Vols can to. Can Georgia and their tight ends put up enough points? Will Georgia run a lot of zone to try something different than Alabama did? A ton of questions on how this will shake out but make sure you watch it!

Also Worth Watching: Alabama vs LSU

3 and Out

Season Total: (12-17) -6.35 Units

Spread Picks (5-9) -4.55 Units, O/U Picks (4-4) -0.45 Units, ML Picks (3-5) -1.35 Units

2-1 and the big ML dog win and we are climbing back. Let's keep the momentum hot! Seems like G5 bets are a bit easier, but always requires more education. Two weekday picks this week, so get your bets in early and enjoy some midweek football.

1st Pick of the Week: Coastal Carolina ML (+135) vs Appalachian State

Home game in Myrtle Beach and it worked for me last week so I'll go back to the well. Both teams have similar offensive statistics but how they get there could not be more different. The Chanticleers give up more yards through the air, so Chase Brice could go off, but let's keep the good times rolling.

2nd Pick of the Week: u58 (-110) Alabama vs LSU

Alabama came back with a vengance after their loss to Tennessee with a convincing victory against Mississippi State. Their biggest test to get to the SEC Title game is this trip to Baton Rouge. Death Valley is a different place at night and it will be an amazing atmosphere. LSU gave up some points in the Swamp but otherwise have been pretty solid. I'm guessing Alabama can feast on stopping LSU's running game and Will Anderson will reek havoc on passing downs.

3rd Pick of the Week: Ball State +6.5 (-110) vs Kent State

MACtion baby! I'm guessing it will be within a touchdown, so buy the half point if you want. The Golden Flashes are one of the most consistent programs in the MAC but on a Tuesday night it will be hard to get a big lead. I'll take the Cardinals plus the points.