Week 6: A New Number 1?

We almost had a way more fun weekend if Georgia would not have came back to win against Mizzou! Awesome games from start to finish and a ton of ranked on ranked games. Did the Bulldogs show that the Golden Flashes of Kent State were onto something? Is Bama back on top? What about the Buckeyes up north? Let's dive in!

A Week (5) in Review

Favorite Game: Kentucky vs Ole Miss

Good teams win, great teams cover. At least that is what Mark Stoops can tell himself as Kentucky lost in heart breaking fashion. Early in the week Lane Kiffin made sure the Ole Miss faithful knew they had to finish their drinks in the Grove early and get into the stadium for the early kick off. Ole Miss rocked camo helmets and came out firing. Kentucky seems like a team that wants to be more physical than they actually are, losing the rushing yards battle 108 to 186. UK had plenty of chances to win but kept turning the ball over in enemy territory (including the final fumble after a game-winning TD was called back on a penalty). Still a lot in play for both teams, we will see how things shake out.

Favorite Uniform: 

𝐎𝐫𝐞𝐠𝐨𝐧 𝐅𝐨𝐨𝐭𝐛𝐚𝐥𝐥: 𝐆𝐚𝐦𝐞 𝟎𝟓 𝐎𝐟𝐟𝐢𝐜𝐢𝐚𝐥 𝐔𝐧𝐢𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦 🦆#GoDucks x #JustDoIt pic.twitter.com/yJxNKCzCPN

— Oregon Football (@oregonfootball) September 28, 2022

Finally have an Oregon jersey here, I bet one of my 10 loyal readers had a prop bet on when this would happen. Big thing here is this reminded me of when Oregon first started going crazy with their jersey's. I love seeing the green and yellow both on the jersey and it was such a contrast across from the Stanford classic uniforms. Well done, Ducks.

Other Notes from the Weekend

BYU got the offense back on track before their big Vegas game against the Irish this weekend. Can't wait to see how both fanbases travel for that one... Down goes Washington! The Rose Bowl is a tricky place to play because it is so sleepy. The Bruins jumped on the Huskies early and are showing their are two 5-0 teams in LA... Michigan got the job done against the Hawkeyes, something difficult to do in Kinnick. Iowa usually gets in trouble for how boring their offense is every 3-5 years but it feels different this time. They just struggle to make plays. The Spoilermakers are back! Neither QB liked throwing to their team in a sloppy win... Alabama showed they can handle road games. The Razorbacks were upset with the A&M loss and Bama just kept them down. Bama seemed to answer some questions and are back at #1... Dabo was on one on Saturday night and the Tigers did some work. Leary never felt comfortable and that Clemson o-line is legit. DJ is running the ball a lot more and I think that bodes well for them as a contender... The Cowboys got revenge against Baylor behind a two-pronged rushing attack. Is physical football cool again in the Big 12?... I don't know what Bo Nix is going to do week to week and I kind of like it... TCU jumped the Sooners, in part due to a late hit on Dillon Gabriel. Tough break for the OU faithful as the cracks are showing up... Mississippi State came to play! Was A&M looking ahead? Or is the erratic mad genius Mike Leach just brilliant?... Georgia Tech with a huge upset! They have looked hapless all year but showed life and Pitt has to be hurting after the worst loss of the year... Kansas got lucky with that missed field goal but every team needs that... Wisconsin fired Chryst and they looked bad against the Illini. It always hurts to lose a game when the opponent plays your style and has less talent so it makes sense they made the coaching change... UCONN got the win against Fresno State. Does this mean Mora is turning them around? All things considered they are moving in the correct direction... Congrats to Nebraska for getting the win for interim coach Mickey Joseph, that locker room looked awesome... It is unfortunate the PAC 12 is getting good again now that the conference is disbanding. Seems like the Big 12 and Big Ten are picking off the rest of the teams they want, stay strong Washington State and Oregon State fans...

Favorite Play of the Week

Some big-time plays were made this weekend to win close games. Clemson was out for blood and wanted to reassert their dominance in the ACC after losing to NC State last year (I wish 10-3 was a down year for my team). This play put them up 10 and kind of relaxed the team after NC State played them close for much of the game.

Things happen fast in the red zone as you lose the ability to stretch the field "vertically" as the end zone is a hard barrier. But you can stretch the field vertically in a traditional sense by having a height advantage. That is why tight ends are so valuable in the red zone. Sure, they can't run by you, but they are 4 inches taller and can jump over you. Because Clemson has been running the ball well they can use play action to get the defense leaning one way and capitalize in the opposite direction.

• Clemson is lined up in a 3 by 1 formation with the back on the opposite side of the tight end / H-back. They run this formation a lot to use inside zone and have the tight end come across the formation and kick out the end man on line of scrimmage to create cutback lanes.
• The defensive front is shifted to the strong side of the formation because they know Clemson wants to run the ball in that direction. Notice how the backside defensive end is lined up inside of the offensive tackle. This means the safety (2) has outside contain.
• The defensive backs (1-5) show it is cover 0, a common coverage in the red zone. This means there is no deep safety in zone and everyone is in man coverage 1 on 1. All the defensive backs are facing the player they are covering and not at the quarterback.

• The tight end (1) is coming across the formation running at the safety, which looks like a kick out block.
• The front 7 of the defense has fully bought into the run and is at the line of scrimmage to stop the run.
• The other safety (2) is coming across the formation showing he has the tight end in coverage. The beauty of play action in the shotgun is the quarterback is facing the defense; he can see what they are doing. This confirms it is cover 0 and he has the tight end 1 on 1.

• The play action has paid off and DJ has all the room to throw. This is a QB's dream.
• The safety is still over the top of the tight end but is having to reverse course. Can he stop him from being open long enough until he runs out of bounds?

• DJ lets the ball out trusting the tight end to make a play. It's not quite clear where he is trying to place the ball as the tight end is not going to be able to get by the safety before he runs out of the end zone.

• DJ throws the ball "back shoulder" to the tight end. It used to be that these type of throws were made outside (see Aaron Rodgers throwing to Jordy Nelson) before Drew Brees started to do it in the seams and then slot fades became the route of choice for Antonio Brown and DaVante Adams and they were great at catching it "back shoulder". What that means is that instead of throwing the ball up the field so the receiver can run under it they throw it outside so they turn around and create a natural separation from their defender. When done correctly you can create a catchable ball even if the defender does everything right (like this poor safety did). It's six points and Clemson is still in the playoff hunt.

Week 6 Preview

Favorite Power 5 Game: TCU vs Kansas

GameDay is in Lawrence this week! For the first time ever, Reece Davis and the gang rolls into town as the Jayhawks are ranked for the first time since 2009. They welcome in a ranked TCU team that took it to the Sooners last week. Both teams want to run the ball and both teams are relatively good at stopping it. I think the Horned Frogs will probably bring the Jayhawks back to earth but I will be cheering for the underdog to keep riding high.

Also Worth Watching: Texas vs Oklahoma

Favorite Group of 5 Game: Georgia Southern vs Georgia State

Fairly even spread here in the Sunbelt and I think it should be a fun one. Georgia State is 1-4 but had to play UNC and South Carolina, so that is misleading. Both teams have lost to Coastal Carolina recently but bowl games could be in play for the winner of the game. I think it will be Southern over State but it should be a wild road to get there.

Also Worth Watching: SMU vs UCF

Favorite Player to Watch: Quinn Ewers (QB - Texas) vs Oklahoma

The hometown mulleted gunslinger for the Longhorns is looking like he will return vs the rival Sooners this Saturday. The Red River Rivalry takes place in the Cotton Bowl at the Texas State Fair and looks like an absolute party. This game could have meant a lot more nationally but neither team has taken care of business. Ewers was one of the highest rated QB's ever coming out of HS and with Arch Manning coming on campus next fall he will need to build off his great first half against Alabama. He has a really lose motion and I would be watching if he can drop balls in over the linebackers and in front of the safeties; he can make every other throw.

Also Worth Watching: Audric Estime (RB - Notre Dame) vs BYU

Biggest Game of the Week: Tennessee vs LSU

Hendon Hooker and the Vols are fresh off a bye week and head into Baton Rouge. Lucky for them, the game is not at night. LSU had 5 passing yards in the second half of their game against Auburn but still pulled it out. I doubt they can do that against the powerful Tennessee team. The Vols average over 100 yards more than the Tigers and I think they will put up some points. LSU's roster is still loaded with highly ranked recruits, so they could show up, but Brian Kelly isn't the best underdog coach.

Also Worth Watching: Texas A&M vs Alabama

3 and Out

Season Total: (7-11) -3.9 Units

Spread Picks (3-4) -1.3 Units, O/U Picks (2-3) -1.2 Units, ML Picks (2-4) -1.4 Units

2-1 last week and we are crawling back (and half a point from 3-0). May start updating the blog throughout the week with picks I like besides the 3 but will stick with 3 for now.

1st Pick of the Week: BYU ML (+125) vs Notre Dame

Not going to lie, this pick makes my stomach churn. BYU looked bad against the talent of Oregon. But Oregon's advantage was their outside speed. ND does everything through the running game and throwing the their tight ends and so BYU can keep up with that game plan. Notre Dame looked good against North Carolina but who knows how long they can roll with a backup QB. Since it is a close line and hard to guess I'll take the underdog in hopes of making some dough off of Vegas from the game in Vegas.

2nd Pick of the Week: u65 (-110) Wake Forest vs Army

Going back to this well. Army has had some high scoring games this year but I think Vegas is aiming on capturing value from Wake's high-passing offense (they did this last year with Ole Miss). Army gives up more yards rushing than passing, so they get opponents to play their game. Wake hasn't been as good at running this year and has relied on Hartman's arm a ton. It's a good idea, but I think Army holds this one closer and lower scoring than the general public thinks will happen.

3rd Pick of the Week: Tennessee -3 (-115) vs LSU

I guess this blog we just talk about my favorite SEC game and Wake Forest. LSU's offensive line is not great and Death Valley is not the same at noon as it is at night. Both teams give up close to 100 yards rushing and put up close to 200. But Tennessee puts up 100 yards more in passing. At some point Jayden Daniels is going to have to put the ball in the air to win. Can he do that? I think he can keep it close, but I'll say it'll be a victory by more than a field goal.