Week 7: Red (River) Wedding

Conference schedules are in full swing and the air is crisp. Did anyone think the Longhorns would win 49-0 even two weeks ago? From the jump on Saturday we had some fun games and crazy outcomes. Let's dive in!

A Week (6) in Review

Favorite Game: Alabama vs Texas A&M

Tried to overthink this one but I couldn't do it. Ever since Jimbo Fisher and Nick Saban got into it this off-season everyone was looking forward to this game. Alabama started a backup quarterback and looked sloppy, something we have seen recently when on the road but not at home, and squeaked this on out. Everyone has been saying that Jimbo has been too vanilla with his play calls this year and he didn't change the narrative with his final play call on 4th and goal. Milroe looked great in the run game but turned the ball over three times and the Crimson Tide had a litany of penalties. Can Saban button up the troops before they get burned by the gauntlet of the SEC West? Time will tell.

Favorite Uniform: Boston College

When it seems there is no way out…

Make the choice to lead. pic.twitter.com/mC4oCgCIAP

— Boston College Football (@BCFootball) October 4, 2022

The Red Bandana game is one of my favorite college football traditions and BC always does a great job with the jersey. Welles Crowther was a Boston College lacrosse alum, a volunteer firefighter, and an equities trader who worked in the World Trade Center. On the day of 9/11 he put a red bandana around his face to help fight the smoke and saved as many as 18 lives before the building collapsed. ESPN did a great feature on the story a few years ago and I cannot recommend it enough. BC having this game every year is an amazing way to honor Crowther and to remind us that some people rise to extraordinary heights and we should strive to join them.

Other Notes from the Weekend

The Volunteers went into Death Valley and took care of business. This bodes well for their game this week against the Crimson Tide. Luckily Brian Kelly is not normally an underdog at LSU because he doesn't win a lot of games when he is... The Big Ten West is a dumpster fire of mediocrity and the Big Ten needs to do away with divisions (but Purdue please make it to Indy this year)... Ohio State does not seem to be having the trouble that Georgia and Alabama are. Part of that is competition but part of that is their offensive line and receiver talent... Kentucky laid an egg vs South Carolina and Kansas lost an admirable fight to the Horned Frogs. At least basketball season is close... Oklahoma State is flying underneath the national radar but may not be if they can win at TCU, who has a Heisman candidate in Max Duggan... Does Lane Kiffin gamble? The cover at the end of the night had to upset everyone on Vanderbilt... Normally Chip Kelly offenses get less aggressive against physical teams. Charbonnet is the perfect antidote as he is a physical downhill runner. Should we be talking about the Bruins more?... Mississippi State may be the second best team in the SEC West and Mike Leach is proving his offense works with the big boys... UVA's offense has been among the most disappointing units this year. All of the pre-snap motion is gone and they're running Clemson's offense; maybe it doesn't work if you don't recruit 5 stars... It took James Madison 5 games in the FBS to get ranked. While we all thought App State was America's darling it may actually be the Dukes... When was the last time Navy scored over 50 points? The Academies are putting up points this year and could be fun during the Army Navy game... Illinois vs Iowa was a tough watch and I respect anyone who could. 9-6 is a brutal game... Will Paul Chryst and Scott Frost be on Alabama's staff next year? A tough month for head coaches who were hometown heroes as quarterbacks...

Favorite Play of the Week

Modern offenses do an incredible job running multiple plays off of the same few "actions". Oklahoma State is quite successful with this and you can see in the play below how difficult it is to read modern offenses.

Oklahoma State gives the look of at least 3 plays here (jet sweep, inside zone run, zone read / RPO / play action pass). What is TCU supposed to do? They probably discussed it on Sunday during film but they didn't have the answer on this run.

• Similar to the Northwestern play we looked at in the Week 1 preview OSU is in an unbalanced formation with the slot receiver ineligible to catch a pass downfield (red "x"). Texas Tech does have to cover him though (dot 3) because could be a blocker.
• The receiver on the left side of the formation (dot 1) is coming in motion like he would take a jet sweep to the outside. This play became very popular when Gus Malzahn ran it a lot at Auburn and helps stretch the field horizontally.
• The tight end (dot 2) is off the line of scrimmage, away from the running back, and almost directly behind the tackle. The defense is thinking inside zone is a possibility and he would kick out the backside defensive end.
• The corners (dots 5 and 6) are off coverage and the safeties (near dot 4) are shaded towards the strong side in a potential cover 3 look as 6 does not follow 1 across the formation.

• At the snap we see the potential for a jet sweep and inside run by the running back. The tight end is coming across the formation (yellow arrow) and so the edge player (dot 1) is closing that space from the backside tackle so there is not a cutback lane for the running back. The nickel back (dot 3) is engaging with the ineligible receiver as he thinks it may be a jet sweep.
• The backside corner (dot 2) has stayed put and is watching the TE to see if he is running out for a pass.
• In the middle the play side linebacker is widening a bit, maybe because of the jet motion but the backside linebacker is watching the backside guard and coming down hill because he thinks it is inside zone.

• The backside end has collapsed towards the tight end (dot 2 is the encounter) and gives the quarterback a defined "pull" read to run it (dot 1). The tight end doesn't cut block him though but that action helped set the edge player up to think it was just a straight run.
• We can see the nickel back (dot 3) is engaged and the linebackers (dot 4) are thinking it is an inside run and know they have the corner outside if the QB keeps it.

• The quarterback (dot 1) is running outside with the tight end (dot 2) as a lead blocker. Some teams will have the tight end run a flat route towards the sideline for play action / RPO but the TE looks like he is hoping to block somebody from the start.
• The corner is trying to get outside the tight end and force the QB back towards the middle  where the linebackers and safeties are (dot 4).

• The tight end kicks out the corner and the QB cuts up field (dot 1). If the quarterback was less decisive that could have given the defenders who were caught inside to stop the running back (dots 2 and 3) time to recover.

• Having a top athlete a quarterback puts the calculus of the run game back into the offenses favor because they don't have to block everyone (like the backside edge player in this play). Even if defenders have their keys they start cheating when the game gets going and they are getting gashed on plays like the inside zone and jet sweep. This gave the QB a chance to show off his legs and score on the ground.

Week 6 Preview

Favorite Power 5 Game: USC vs Utah

Welcome to the Pac-12, Lincoln Riley. This is not your typical Utah team, loaded with large defensive linemen that occupy blockers so their linebackers can go hunt. But this is still a physical team that moves the ball by throwing to their tight ends and controls the line of scrimmage. USC has had tremendous turnover luck this year (is it luck if it's lasted 6 games?) but going up to Salt Lake is a different ball game. Can Caleb Williams weather another storm and keep the Trojans in the playoff picture or will Utah reassert themselves as the CFP favorites out west?

Also Worth Watching: Oklahoma State vs TCU

Favorite Group of 5 Game: UConn vs Ball State

Tune into this game in Funcie to see a contrast in styles. UConn has 3 wins this year, which is a ton for UConn football. They also hardly ever throw the ball, passing for 99 yards a game. Ball State puts the ball in the air and have a propensity to throw it to the team in different jerseys. This game is also a 2pm kick, so if the noon games are duds flip on over to this one for a bit.

Also Worth Watching: Old Dominion vs Coastal Carolina

Favorite Player to Watch: Ronnie Bell (WR - Michigan) vs Penn State

The Wolverines are once again on Big Noon Kickoff and facing their biggest game until the Saturday after Thanksgiving. In their first three games Michigan's receivers ran freely down the field and JJ McCarthy looked like the greatest QB ever. Against more worthy opponents they have had a bit more trouble gaining separation and it has lead to some plays where JJ is sitting back in the pocket for 10+ seconds; not a sustainable offense. Penn State has some Sunday-worthy corners, including Joey Porter Jr. If Michigan wants to stay undefeated they will have to win some 1 on 1's and Bell vs Porter Jr. will be a key matchup to watch.

Also Worth Watching: Jaxson Dart (QB - Ole Miss) vs Auburn

Biggest Game of the Week: Alabama vs Tennessee

We got a showdown in Knoxville between two longtime rivals and it has playoff implications (this is the first time since 1989 both are undefeated). Alabama looked vulnerable this weekend and Bryce Young will be the most talked about injury all week. Both teams have run the ball extremely well this year but it looks like the Vols will have the edge through the air as Bama is still ironing out their receiving core. Will Coach Huepel go for it on fourth down early to try to get 7 instead of 3? That was Lane Kiffin's undoing last year in a matchup that felt quite similar to this one. Enjoy a beautiful uniform game and the amazing end zones in Neyland Stadium as they will likely be shown a lot during this game.

Also Worth Watching: Penn State vs Michigan

3 and Out

Season Total: (9-12) -3.15 Units

Spread Picks (4-4) -0.45 Units, O/U Picks (3-3) -0.3 Units, ML Picks (2-5) -2.4 Units

Another 2-1 week last week, let's keep climbing back.

1st Pick of the Week: Vanderbilt +38 (-110) vs Georgia

Not an upset pick here just a keep it within 6 touchdowns. Georgia's offense has slowed down after their big start and teams that rely on throwing to their tight ends are not usually high flying. The Commodores have shown some fight this year in the SEC, and I think they can put up some points, enough to keep it within 38. This will be a pick to sweat out, but let's make some money.

2nd Pick of the Week: Penn State +7 (-105) vs Michigan

This game is going to be awesome but will be a one score game. Both coaches seem to prefer to play close to the vest in big games, relying on defense and running the ball. Michigan has the edge in a dynamic quarterback, but I'm not sure Harbaugh is going to let him try to take over the game. Remember those awesome corners Penn State has? I think Michigan would rather give Corum 30 touches again. Penn State keeps it close even if the Nittany Lions don't get the win, but you could also sprinkle some on the ML.

3rd Pick of the Week: u65.5 (-110) Alabama vs Tennessee

This pick could look terrible if Young comes back and is chucking the ball around the yard. But fortune favors the bold. I think there will be some long drives that get turned over on downs, a lot of Alabama runs, and two defenses that get their moment in the spotlight after everyone always talking about their offenses. Usually as the weather gets colder the totals get lower, but fans will want the high scoring so Vegas gives them something to bite on. I'm not going to take it, but I will be cheering for it.