Week 9: Winning Ugly

I hope you all got outside and enjoyed the warm weather before fall and winter really set in. If you spent all day at the apple orchard and Saturday night watching the Phillies hit the ball all over the yard no worries, we got you covered.

A Week (8) in Review

Favorite Game: Oklahoma State vs Texas

The Longhorns bring out the best in people and once again they are in this slot as losers. While Quinn Ewers should have a long leash to make freshman mistakes, he is that good, it will result in a loss like it did on Saturday. The Pokes were touchdown underdogs at home versus the Longhorns and didn't know if they would have their signal caller until late Friday, so give them credit. The Big 12 does good embracing the Wild West and this was a gun slingin' battle, but the Cowboys prevailed with a late (and third) pick proving too much for the Longhorns to overcome.

Favorite Uniform: University of Buffalo

Can't wait to see these in action on Saturday!#UBhornsUP | #UBThrowback pic.twitter.com/YBE3i27r6B

— UB Football (@UBFootball) October 20, 2022

MACtion returns next week and so we can get fired up with these beautiful retros. Any time you can incorporate the old logo and bring back the nostalgia we are fans of it, great work Buffs.

Other Notes from the Weekend

Appalachian State got the weekend started with a beatdown of Georgia State. They went down early but weathered the storm (and the cold weather) and got the win... Troy sits atop the Sun Belt with the defensive struggle against South Alabama. Who would've thought that would be the case with all the love other schools are getting in the conference?... Virginia misses their old play callers and those guys are doing just fine in Syracuse. I really thought the Orange were going to pull it off at Clemson, but penalties were their undoing. Should Clemson switch QB's? DJ didn't look great but with that defensive line it may not matter in the ACC... Ohio State had some sloppiness, and shout out Iowa for scoring once again on defense, but they proved too much for the Hawkeyes. They must be so bored the first eleven games of the season... Our thoughts and prayers are with the Mississippi State football program with the loss of teammate Sam Westmoreland... Ole Miss has been a running team all year and LSU just did it better than the Rebels this weekend. I think the Rebels come back down to earth, but they are building something in Oxford... TCU versus Kansas State was an absolutely delight and showed why the Big 12 needs more spotlights. Deuce Vaughn was incredible but shout out to Max Duggan for continuing to fight back. Could the Horned Frogs make it to the playoffs after surviving this crazy stretch?... Oregon took it to their former coach this weekend and put on a clinic. Bo Nix seems really comfortable out of the pressure cooker than is the SEC and is playing like a free man. Holding the Bruins to 30 points is an impressive feat for that defense too... Penn State got right but unfortunately don't get to use the white out against Ohio State. It could be a long day... If you had Army putting up 48 in a game this century kudos to you... Texas Tech at home has to become an automatic bet. What happened to West Virginia? The air raid is difficult if you aren't consistent... James Madison has had a swift fall back to earth, well done Marshall on getting a second FBS win this year... Running backs have incredible hands nowadays. I guess those 7-on-7 leagues in high school have been serving them well. All those wheel routes are getting dangerous against man coverage in the red zone... I get that the 3-3-5 defense is very popular right now but teams are running it on the one yard line. Offenses are running dives and scoring quite easily when they see that look; sub another big guy in and deter that...

Favorite Play of the Week

We have talked a lot recently about defending the whole width of the field. Most teams force you to do this by throwing bubbles and swing passes. These plays can feel pointless most of the time; short gains and easy tackles. But usually it is getting one of your top athletes an easy touch in space and if they make a defender miss they have some running room. It also can open up some other plays.

Texas Tech fakes the screen here and throws the ball downfield to one of the original "blockers". Oregon was another team that ran this for a touchdown on Saturday. All of those quick screens and throws early set the defense up for this big chunk play. Add in the fact that West Virginia does not tackle in space well and you get 6 points.

• Texas Tech is in a 5-wide set with a quads bunch at the bottom of the screen (yellow circle). If you thought the stacked formation Tennessee ran last week provided a response from the secondary having four receivers that close definitely has their attention.
• The corners (dots 1,4) are pressed up in a cover-2 type look. The corner on the quads set is outside knowing there is a slot corner on the inside and a safety over the top.
• The two linebackers (dot 2) are shifted over towards the bunch set.
• West Virginia is in a dime package meaning they have six defensive backs. They are hoping to press up outside and then have an umbrella over the top (essentially taking the Tampa 2 linebacker and making it a third safety that starts in the middle of the field as dot 3).

• At the snap the last person in the quad bunch turns to catch a screen pass and dot 1 comes flying up and dot 4 works to engage as well. Dot 2 drops laterally in the direction as well.
• Dot 3 shows one linebacker dropping back along with the middle safety, trying to get depth to the middle of the field.

• West Virginia has determined it is not a screen and is working to cover the players running down field. One receiver curls around and two defenders stay with him (dot 1), hoping the downfield targets (dots 2 and 3) get picked up by people who dropped.

• The throw goes to the outside receiver (dot 1) who has no one within 5 yards of him, which is a further throw than dot 2 but could be easier without having to layer the ball in. You can tell the safeties wanted to gain depth, dot 3 is 20 yards from the original line of scrimmage and dot 4 is 25 yards.

• This is just poor pursuit angles. You have four defenders around the ball carrier and can also use the sideline to your advantage and box him in. Here he gets back to the middle of the field and is far enough downfield that most of the players near the line of scrimmage aren't able to get him in pursuit.

After a winding path through the middle of the field, we get the third of many touchdowns for the Red Raiders on Saturday. This play was set up throughout the early portion of the game and opened the floodgates.

Week 9 Preview

Favorite Power 5 Game: Florida vs Georgia

The World's Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party kicks off in Jacksonville and this one is always a treat. Georgia comes in severe favorites but the Gators always play them close. Could the Bulldogs be looking ahead to the game next week versus the Volunteers? Florida's defense has been quite shaky and you never know what Anthony Richardson will look like. But the SEC showcases their depth here with another great game.

Also Worth Watching: Oklahoma State vs Kansas State

Favorite Group of 5 Game: East Carolina vs BYU

The Pirates have been in quite a few close games and the Cougars have not had the season they hoped for. But they'll play anyone anywhere, so here they are. The Pirates can sling the ball around and will give BYU some problems. Jaren Hall has played himself into getting drafted, so be on the lookout for how he plays and if the Cougars can stay above .500.

Also Worth Watching: Louisiana vs Southern Mississippi

Favorite Player to Watch: Chase Brown (RB - Illinois) vs Nebraska

If Illinois beats the Cornhuskers they sit firmly in the driver's seat in the Big Ten West, but if Nebraska wins there are three teams at 3-2 at the top of the scrap heap. Illinois made the smart decision hiring Brett Bielema, who can recruit in Chicagoland and built Wisconsin into a consistent winner at the beginning of the century. Chase Brown has been the bell cow back for the Illini, who pound the ball and hope to get a few play action shots in. Nebraska can put up points, so the Illini will have to control the clock. Can Brown keep them moving the sticks? That will be a big part of the game.

Also Worth Watching: Will Levis (QB - UK) vs Tennessee

Biggest Game of the Week: Kentucky vs Tennessee

Get used to seeing the Volunteers here because they will be next week as well, which is why they need to be here this week. Kentucky is incredibly dangerous and quite physical on both sides of the ball. Tennessee likes to go quick, but if Kentucky can stop them in three plays that puts the game in their favor. Levis is quite the quarterback and poses quite a danger for any look ahead game that the Vols may be doing with #1 Georgia being the matchup next week, should be a fun night game.

Also Worth Watching: Ohio State vs Penn State

3 and Out

Season Total: (10-16) -7.25 Units

Spread Picks (5-8) -3.55 Units, O/U Picks (3-4) -1.3 Units, ML Picks (2-5) -2.4 Units

1-2 last week, please send good vibes. We get back to the original format in one bet in each category and hope we have some success.

1st Pick of the Week: u70.5 (-115) North Texas vs Western Kentucky

The Mean Green versus the Hilltoppers square off in a game with conference implications and two high scoring offenses. Western Kentucky's defense has been playing well and both teams have been scoring less as the weather has cooled off. I think this is another under to sweat out mid-afternoon and I think we get the job done.

2nd Pick of the Week: Ohio State -15.5 (-115) vs Penn State

Early on I thought every spread for Ohio State would be at least -17 until they played Michigan. Since we are getting a point and a half on that I will take it (and at -115 it looks like it will be -16 here soon). Penn State did not have the fire power to consistently move the ball against Michigan and I think it will be the same thing. Ohio State got the offense clicking against Iowa's stiff defense in the second half and I think they keep it rolling during the early kick.

3rd Pick of the Week: Coastal Carolina ML (+105) vs Marshall

I know the Chanticleer's last outing left a lot to be desired, but Marshall only has two wins versus FBS teams this year. I think Coastal can overcome a few injuries and use their speed and physicality to get the job done. I also am hoping to take a few swings and get my yearly total a bit better, so the slight money line dog fits that need as well.