Week 12: Chaos Theory and 3rd Quarter Awards

See, here I'm now sitting by myself, uh, er, talking to myself. That's, that's chaos theory. - Dr. Ian Malcolm (Jurassic Park)

Each week the games get bigger and the stakes higher. Only two weeks left before the conference championships, let's dive in!

A Week (11) in Review

Favorite Game: Washington vs Oregon

Oh Pac-12, how you live in chaos. Oregon was being talked about as a good bet to place to make the playoffs. Autzen stadium at night is usually death to opposing teams. But no one told Michael Penix Jr. and the Huskies. What they have lacked in consistency they make up for with a high ceiling if everything is clicking. Oregon ran the ball up and down the field and chucked it around a decent amount as well, but two costly fumbles hurt the Ducks. Oregon can still make the Rose Bowl, but I'm sure they were hoping to play for more.

Favorite Uniform: Michigan State Spartans

A salute to service for Saturday's Military Appreciation Game 🇺🇸@JaydenReed5 x #RELENTLESS pic.twitter.com/J382L1Tn3S

— Michigan State Football (@MSU_Football) November 11, 2022

A lot of great uniforms in honor of Veterans Day. I loved the MSU Spartan carrying the American flag on the side of the helmet. It was a unique take on the idea by not just making the standard helmet decal red, white, and blue.

Other Notes from the Weekend

USC did not get tripped up by the Buffs and look like they are primed to seize the Pac-12... Michigan just beats people into submission. Their defensive line could give Ohio State trouble but they can't trip up with the Illini... LSU struggled to shake up the cobwebs against Arkansas but survived and advanced. Things got harry in the SEC West as LSU was struggling and Ole Miss and Alabama had to be pulling hard on the sideline. Bryce Young and a roll of duck tape is keeping the Tide together... No one told Clemson they can't make the CFP still. When they have the talent advantage they are impressive and that defensive front can play with anyone... UCLA getting upset at home was embarrassing and takes the wind out of their sales. Can they play spoiler this weekend for their crosstown rival? At least the USC fans can fill up the Rose Bowl a bit more... Maryland has given up on the season, Lockesley has to be upset with his teams' effort... Navy played hard and muddied the waters against the Irish. With such a physical game the Irish have to get right before they play USC in two weeks... Congrats to Vanderbilt on their first SEC win in three seasons! Kentucky's season of nightmares continues... East Carolina is a tough squad and a fun watch. They gave Cincy all they could handle... Catch a few minutes of Fresno State these next two weeks to see Jake Haener. He is a potential late Day 2 quarterback in the draft... Purdue went into Champaign and got the win. Let's see how the Big Ten West shakes out... TCU survived an ugly one in Austin. Their defense really showed up this week, which has been the question mark of the team. If that keeps up the Frogs could make noise in January... North Carolina keeps surviving and Drake Maye is a dark horse Heisman candidate. Could the Tar Heels make the playoffs?... UConn beat Liberty, who beat Arkansas, who barely lost to LSU. Could the Huskies beat the Bayou Bengals? (I kid)... If Texas Tech is at home they are a blind bet at this point... Boise is having a resurgent season. For a team that was the darling of the late 2000's and a wagon in the 2010's they have struggled the last few years. The early season losses will keep them out of the NY6 but they are a good team and building back up...

Favorite Play of the Week

If you've read every "Play of the Week" you've seen that college teams have unique schemes and ways of operating, but they utilize a lot of the same concepts. Creating space to operate by bunching everyone together or spacing everyone out, sending players in motion to see what the defense is doing and get them looking in the wrong places instead of reading their keys, and getting the ball to your best player in a variety of ways so they can make a big play. One of my favorite teams to watch do this is Air Force. Like the other service academies, they run a lot of option schemes. Unlike the other academies, they are fine trading ball control for big plays. Let's see how they create a big one against New Mexico. (It is the first play in the video, I apologize that the MWC would not let me clip the play).

Air Force fakes the speed option to the wide side of the field and then the quarterback reverses course and takes it to the house. How did Air Force create such a huge running lane? Let's dive in.

• Air Force bunches everyone up towards the line of scrimmage and forces the defense to do the same. Everyone is within 12 yards of the line of scrimmage and ready to come downhill and stop the run.
• Before the ball is snapped the wingback (dot 1) is in deep / rocket motion. This is often used in the flexbone offense Air Force runs to run either a toss sweep to the wingback or gets him in pitch position for an option play.
• The fullback for Air Force (dot 2) is offset indicating that he will be lead blocking for a toss sweep or speed option. Everything is saying Air Force is going to the wide side of the field.
• The defense is bunched up but set up to stop a variety of plays. The linemen are very tight while the two linebackers (dot 3) are wide.
• The safeties (dot 4) are sprinting to be in place to stop the wide run.

• At the snap Air Force shows speed option in the backfield with the quarterback and running back showing they are heading towards the right side of the field (dot 1).
• Things are going very differently at the line of scrimmage. Air Force is pulling two linemen from the wide side back to the short side and the fullback is sealing that side of the line (dot 2).
• New Mexico is reacting to the motion rather than watching their "keys". Usually linebackers are watching the guards and reacting based on what they do. But you can see both step towards the motion (dot 3).
• The safeties are flowing to stop the run (dot 4). You can't really blame them as much as the linebackers because they could be playing man and are just trying to cover their offensive player.

• The quarterback reverses course to the short side of the field (dot 1). Option teams usually have their best athlete at quarterback, so the ball is in good hands.
• On the line, you can see Air Force has ceiled off the line (yellow line) and has the two pulling linemen (dot 2) set to engage the two defenders left unblocked (dot 3). This is something Air Force will take all day.
• In the red box we see all of the players out of position to make a play. They overreacted to the "window dressing" and did not read their keys.

• The quarterback (dot 1) has a nice running lane to hit as the first lineman kicks out the corner (dot 2) and the other lineman ceils off the linebacker (dot 3).
• There is one last player who can make the play as he is not being blocked and is the closest to the quarterback (dot 4). The race to the end zone is on.

• A footrace between Air Force's QB and New Mexico's LB is something the Falcons will take every day. Air Force takes the lead and never gives it back.

3rd Quarter Season Awards

Time flies when you are having fun. While I am sad to see the season go by, we have a lot ahead of us! Let's take a look back at the first three quarters of the season.

National Title Favorite: Georgia

How 'bout them dawgs? Georgia has so many ways to win. They can put up points and they can smother you on defense. Is this defense better than last year's? It's not an insane question. It's time to stop doubting the defending champs and give them the top spot until they get knocked off.

CFP Remaining 3: Ohio State, TCU, Michigan

Next 2: Tennessee, USC

I still think I would pick the Buckeyes to win a neutral site game against Georgia. TCU keeps winning, if they had the "OU" of Oklahoma on their helmet they would be second in the country right now. Could both Michigan and Ohio State get in? Will 2-loss LSU crash the party? Is USC the last great hope out West? Lots of questions to answer these next few weeks.

Heisman Favorite: CJ Stroud (QB - Ohio State)

CJ Stroud is the odds on favorite at this point, but he still lacks that signature victory. This is mainly due to the fact that the Buckeyes are so good. Could it come in a revenge game against the Wolverines? That version of The Game is going to be a classic.

Others to Watch: Hendon Hooker (QB - Tennessee), Caleb Williams (QB - USC), Blake Corum (RB - Michigan), Stetson Bennett (QB - Georgia), Max Duggan (QB - TCU), Drake Maye (QB - UNC)

I would maybe say Corum and Bennett are tied for second right now. If Michigan beats Ohio State Corum has to win (and have a running back crash the QB party). Could the freshman Maye get the job done? The cardiac Tar Heels put a lot on his young shoulders and he carries it with ease.

Best Game: Tennessee vs Alabama

LSU vs Bama would like to have a word with this pick, but we expect that game to be great. Getting Knoxville back to feeling like it is 1998 is still something we will all look back on with fondness. If you're having a bad day, go watch the highlights again.

Honorable Mentions: North Carolina vs Appalachian State, Utah vs Florida, Marshall vs Notre Dame, UTSA vs Houston, Troy vs Appalachian State, Alabama vs Texas, Kentucky vs Ole Miss, Wake Forest vs Clemson, LSU vs Alabama, Washington vs Oregon, Oklahoma State vs Texas

Week 12 Preview

Favorite Power 5 Game: Oklahoma State vs Oklahoma

This game admittedly isn't bringing much to the table like it normally does. But it's Bedlam! As we get closer to the Sooners leaving to the SEC we get less likely these two long-standing rivals play regularly. Both teams have been beat up recently and the Sooners may not make a bowl game. Throw out the records and expect a shootout in Norman.

Also Worth Watching: Stanford vs Cal

Favorite Group of 5 Game: Marshall vs Georgia Southern

Georgia Southern can put up a lot of points but they give up a ton. Marshall's offense has trouble getting going in the air but their defense feasts on opposing teams. What is the style that gets played on Saturday? I would guess it is a shootout, with the Eagles' defense allowing the Thundering Herd to get going on the ground. Should be a fun one in Statesboro!

Also Worth Watching: Arkansas State vs Texas State

Favorite Player to Watch: JJ McCarthy (QB - Michigan) vs Illinois

Michigan is #3 in the CFP and 10-0. They are top 25 in passing efficiency but bottom 50 in passing yards per game. If the Wolverines hope to consistently beat Ohio State and compete against the Georgia's and Alabama's they need to get better at pushing the ball downfield. This includes schematic changes, recruitment of better outside receiver talent, and, in the short-term, JJ capitalizing on the few chances he gets in a game. Can he do that against a stingy Illini defense? Michigan will win, but improvements are needed before they head to Columbus.

(See my picks for a note on UVA; Grayson McCall was my initial pick but the game has been cancelled)

Also Worth Watching: John Rhys Plumlee (QB - UCF) vs Navy

Biggest Game of the Week: USC vs UCLA

First off, I can already tell you this will be the best uniform matchup of the season. USC is the last hope for the PAC-12 getting into the playoff. USC does not have the depth of a normal contender but they may have the best quarterback and receiver in the country, and that goes a long way. UCLA can play more physical than in the past, so they could bully the Trojans into 3rd and long continuously. This is how the Trojans have struggled in the past. Which Bruins team shows up? Will the Trojans keep having some turnover luck? Saturday night will be a good one.

Also Worth Watching: TCU vs Baylor

3 and Out

Season Total: (14-18) -3.45 Units

Spread Picks (6-9) -3.65 Units, O/U Picks (5-5) -0.45 Units, ML Picks (5-6) +0.65 Units

Another 2-1 week, let's see if we can keep climbing back and finish out of the red.

Edit: My heart goes out to the University of Virginia after the unspeakable tragedy that occurred. I previously had Coastal Carolina as a pick but am remitting the pick. My thoughts and prayers are with Charlottesville.

1st Pick of the Week: Massachusetts +33 (-110) vs Texas A&M

Taking the Minutemen to cover almost 5 touchdowns against the Aggies. A&M has become a dumpster fire and the sharks are circling. A&M also wants to run the ball and that will bleed the clock out. I don't think the game will be close, but it will be within 33 points.

2nd Pick of the Week: Tennessee -22 (-105) vs South Carolina

The Volunteers shook the rust off early and put up a ton of points last week. Their best hope is to put up as many points as possible each week and impress the playoff committee. The Gamecocks have been disappointing this year and I think both trends continue. Give me the Vols.

3rd Pick of the Week: u33 (-115) Iowa vs Minnesota

Another shot at history! The Hawkeyes were a part of the lowest total line ever set earlier this year and they are flirting with it again. This is a must bet. It is going to be a cold game in Minneapolis and the Gophers will want to pound the rock. Iowa returned to their terrible offensive ways last week and I bet that continues. Selfishly I will be cheering for Minnesota but will take the money as well if this hits.