Week 14: Gobbled Up and Conference Championship Week Preview

I hope everyone had a great Thanksgiving holiday! A lot of teams saw their playoff hopes gobbled up and chaos reigned all rivalry weekend. I know my eyes are crossed after four days of watching games last week, but it was a great time. Let's dive in!

A Week (13) in Review

Favorite Game: Florida State vs Florida

A lot of games to pick from this week! I will go with the Seminoles and Gators. Florida had a rough entrance into the game after losing to Vanderbilt, but wanted to end the regular season on a high note. It was a sloppy game, with both teams just taking big swings and missing plenty, but that made it a ton of fun. Jordan Travis was electric for Florida State and I think Mike Norvell's squad will have a ton of expectations on them heading into next year. One last note, learn to lower the shoulder, Jordan, coming up short at the goal line on a slide was quite embarrassing even if you ended up scoring.

Favorite Uniform: Michigan vs Ohio State

🧊🥶🧊 pic.twitter.com/C1IpNLq0Y0

— Michigan Football (@UMichFootball) November 25, 2022

 

Let's Go!!!!!! Had to ❌ake sure ❌y boys had that 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥 for the weekend!! O-H!! #GoBucks https://t.co/n35ddwDBBz

— LeBron James (@KingJames) November 23, 2022

First off, I would like to petition that both teams wear their home jerseys in The Game. Since that will never happen, how awesome is it that the two best basketball players ever are on opposite sides of the rivalry? Michigan rocks the Jumpman and Ohio State had special cleats made to look like Lebron's first signature shoe. I love the levels to this rivalry.

Other Notes from the Weekend

Seems like Michigan left some points on the board all season so they could surprise the Buckeyes with some deep passes! This is why JJ McCarthy was named the starter this season. College football was changed once all the top quarterbacks started going to the top programs and it made beating the likes of Ohio State, Clemson, and Alabama hard to beat. Michigan has a deep roster that is physical on the line of scrimmage and now they've shown they have the signal caller to get into a shootout. Amazing work by Donovan Edwards to carry the ground game late and for Michigan to figure things out up front after a rough first quarter... Caleb Williams won the Heisman trophy Saturday night, let's hope he doesn't lose it this Friday. Was an amazing performance by the Trojans. It could be a really fun playoff with a lot of fresh faces trying to pick off Georgia... Lane Kiffin is staying in Oxford but lost the Egg Bowl. The SEC West is a crowded place and I hope both Mississippi teams keep building... UNC lost a heartbreaker to NC State and come limping into this weekend. Mack Brown needs to take a look at that defense this off-season... Tulane went into Historic Nippert Stadium and ended a long home winning streak by the Bearcats. Go watch the throw that was made on the last touchdown, what a dart... Texas, Tennessee, Penn State, and Washington all ended the regular season on high notes. Can they bring that through the bowl game and build on it next season? These past titans would be fun to have going at full potential again... Is Spencer Rattler back in as a draft prospect?... What collapses by Oregon and Clemson, that will take the air out of your sales... TCU did not blink with everyone still on the line, what a defense they have built up... Some big shoot outs in the G5 conferences, be sure to watch some of those championship games this weekend!... Happy trails to David Shaw. He did a great job at Stanford but things needed a change. Hopefully post-pandemic they can get back to recruiting high-end talent, those were some fun teams under Harbaugh and Shaw... Also happy trails to Cadillac Williams! The first Black coach in Iron Bowl history and he went 2-2 as an interim. He was an amazing player for the Tigers and did a great job in a difficult situation. I am not sure where he goes next but what a standup guy... Luke Fickell to Wisconsin and Matt Rhule to Nebraska! I love both of these hires and think they are both awesome program builders. Tough blow to Cincinnati as they enter the Big 12 but I can't wait to see Wisconsin face Ohio State now...

Favorite Play of the Week

Well, I certainly did not think that Michigan had that many big plays in them. If this is the type of output the Wolverines are going to put up, their ceiling is exponentially higher. The first long touchdown pass was more on bad tackling and calling a cover 0 blitz on 3rd and long. But clearly the Buckeyes didn't respect Michigan's downfield passing attack. That is what makes the second touchdown so incredible. Not only does Michigan use play action and take a deep shot to score, they use a concept that Ryan Day is famous for. Let's take a look.

• Michigan starts out in the Pistol and is bringing a man in motion (dot 2). They like to run an inside zone with the motion man as a cutback block or have the motion man run into the flat on play action. JJ can check down a lot and so the safety to the wide side (dot 6) is widening because of it. This will come into play later.
• Ohio State is in a Tampa 2 look, with the two corners (dots 1 and 3) up on the receivers and then actually having three safeties deep (dots 4, 5, and 6). We will see how this plays out throughout the play.

• Michigan runs a play action pass play (dot 1) which freezes the two safeties in the middle (yellow circle). They are not gaining depth and will eventually pick up the receiver on a crossing route.
• The arrow route by the motion man (dot 2) is continuing to widen the safety (dot 4) and the corner (dot 3) allows the receiver to have a free release because he is worried about the arrow route. This allows the receiver to close the distance on the safety (dot 4) who is about the same width as him.

• Michigan kept the tight end in for extra protection and give JJ (dot 1) a nice pocket to step up into to throw the ball. Michigan puts a premium on protection, but that can often limit the chances to throw deep. That is not the case here.
• This is where the cruelty of Michigan's design comes into play. Ohio State routinely runs a crossing route to pull a safety down and then runs a deep post behind him. The Michigan receiver running the crosser (dot 2) has three defenders around him and only ten yards past the line of scrimmage.
• Meanwhile, the deep post is being run on the other side (dot 3) and will be running behind those defenders we just talked about. He has a lot of green turf to run towards.

• If you look closely, you can see the safety at the bottom of the screen and no one else in sight. JJ has so much room to throw that even though it isn't a perfect ball it works. While he doesn't hit the receiver in stride, he throws it to the correct location. The arrow shows the direction the receiver is running away from the safety. A lot of quarterbacks throw the post up the field and give the safety a quicker route to recover. JJ throws it away from the safety and keeps that separation.

• The race to the endzone is on and Michigan wins. If they can keep having deep passing plays they can play with anyone.

Conference Championship Week Preview

Conference USA: North Texas vs UTSA 

Prediction: UTSA 34-14

Player to Watch: Corey Mayfield Jr. (CB - UTSA)

The Roadrunners will not be denied! They have a three-headed monster rushing attack, a stud wide receiver, and a punishing defense. They have been a fun team all season and I hope they get a bowl game that lets them be showcased.

PAC-12: Utah vs USC 

Prediction: USC 42-24

Player to Watch: Caleb Williams (QB - USC)

Can this be the coronation for Williams? He balled out in their first matchup and I think USC is ascending and the Utes are descending. Should be a fun Friday night and I don't think it will be a one point game this time.

Big 12: Kansas State vs TCU 

Prediction: TCU 42-38

Player to Watch: Quentin Johnston (WR - TCU)

A date with destiny for the Horned Frogs. Kansas State has looked ferocious of late and love to play spoilers in games like these. Can Deuce Vaughn have a Darren Sproles-esque game like the 2003 Big 12 Championship? I think TCU wins a close one but it could look a lot like last year's championship where Oklahoma State was stopped on the goal line.

MAC: Toledo vs Ohio 

Prediction: Ohio 18-14

Player to Watch: CJ Harris (QB - Ohio)

I get people being down on the Bobcats with star quarterback Kurtis Rourke out. But Harris did a great job against bowl-eligible Bowling Green and could man the reigns again here. He will be asked to do more in this one, but I think he gets it done in a lower scoring affair.

Sun Belt: Coastal Carolina vs Troy 

Prediction: Troy 27-10

Player to Watch: Kimani Vidal (RB - Troy)

This game would look a lot different if Grayson McCall is playing. But that is football, and Coastal will try to circle the wagons after James Madison took them to task. Vidal is a monster and the Trojans will see if they can overpower the Chanticleers on offense. I think they'll put up enough points to beat the wounded Coastal team.

SEC: LSU vs Georgia 

Prediction: Georgia 30-17

Player to Watch: Brock Bowers (TE - Georgia)

This good part for LSU is they look in the mirror and see Georgia as a peer school, they will not be afraid. They will be motivated, but the Dawgs have felt disrespected all year. It may be a slow start, but Georgia gets rolling and physically manhandles LSU.

American: UCF vs Tulane 

Prediction: Tulane 38-28

Player to Watch: Dorian Williams (LB - Tulane)

Back in New Orleans, where UCF went and beat Tulane a few weeks ago. Turnovers were the difference in that game, as the Green Wave held UCF to a below average offensive output. I'll take Tulane in the rematch, but they have to not turn the ball over.

Mountain West: Fresno State vs Boise State 

Prediction: Fresno State 35-31

Player to Watch: Jake Haener (QB - Fresno State)

This will be the best game that no one watches on Saturday. In Boise, where the Broncos beat the Bulldogs by 20 last time. But Fresno State was without their star quarterback, and future Day 2 NFL draft pick (spoiler, will I be doing some QB breakdowns on a draft preview?) Jake Haener! This will be a fun, close game, but I am going to take the Bulldogs on the upset.

Big Ten: Purdue vs Michigan 

Prediction: Michigan 42-14

Player to Watch: Charlie Jones (WR - Purdue)

Purdue wins the division and makes the championship game in the last season they may be able to before the Big Ten removes divisions. But what a ride it has been! Michigan got their statement win this past weekend and is likely the best bet to knock off Georgia in the playoff. I don't see the Wolverines getting tripped up, but if they do it will be because Chuck Sizzle is making insane plays.

ACC: Clemson vs North Carolina 

Prediction: Clemson 35-21

Player to Watch: Myles Murphy (DE - Clemson)

Kind of a letdown after where these two teams were two weeks ago. But still an NY6 game to play for! Myles Murphy leads a Clemson defensive front that has feasted all season long. Can the Tar Heels protect Drake Maye? I bet they struggle a bit and Clemson rides Shipley to a large victory.

3 and Out

Season Total: (18-20) -1.75 Units

Spread Picks (8-10) -2.65 Units, O/U Picks (7-5) +1.25 Units, ML Picks (5-6) -0.35 Units

So close to finishing the regular season at .500! I had a lot of fun trying to predict early lines this year and hope you all enjoyed watching the up's and down's. Here are some picks for the conference championship weekend.

1st Pick of the Week: Ohio +4 (-110) vs Toledo

Got burned by MACtion money line last week so we will take the short underdogs here in the championship game. I know everyone thinks the backup QB will be the Bobcats undoing but I think they run the ball, shorten the game, and at least play it close.

2nd Pick of the Week: Fresno State ML (+175) vs Boise State

I like Fresno State in this rematch because this time they have a healthy quarterback. I really enjoy watching Haener's footwork and tight release and he can sling some darts. At least flip over from watching the SEC Championship to see the beautiful blue turf, this will be fun.

3rd Pick of the Week: o50 (-110) Michigan vs Purdue

I think Purdue can put up some points on Saturday night, call me crazy. They will also likely give up quite a few and this low over will hit. Let's speak a 3-0 week into existence.