Bowlapalooza Week 2 (12/23-12/29)
Bowlapalooza Week 2 (12/23-12/29)
First off, a Merry Christmas to all of those who are celebrating this weekend. If you are in the Midwest, stay warm, make some hot cocoa, and settle in for all of the sports! While we will only be talking through the second bowl week here, there will be plenty of NFL, NBA, NHL, and Premier League to go around. Enjoy the time with family!
Bowl Week 1 Thoughts
Troy vs UTSA had one of the easiest unders of the season, the Trojans' defense ate up the Road Runners... UAB looked good against the Redhawks and Trent Dilfer had an interesting rant about the state of our country during the game... Oregon State vs Florida was a classic example of why bowls are so weird. Florida was so checked out but at least they got to go to Vegas... Jake Haener looked great against Wazzu and I really like him in the draft if you need a solid late Day 2 QB... Frank Gore Jr. was an absolute beast last Saturday. The dude is living up to the name... Things got a bit awkward at the end of the Frisco Bowl... UConn looked good but turnovers killed them. Same with San Jose State. Amazing backdoor cover for Liberty... I think there is a lane to lament what bowl season means now versus the past without demonizing these players. Yes it is unfortunate to see all of these opt outs but the money is too big nowadays for the decision to not be considered. I am excited Will Anderson and Bryce Young are playing for Bama but I also understand other guys sitting out. If the coaches can leave for other jobs before the bowl is played than players can to. That's my soapbox...
Favorite Play of the Week
Not every amazing play can be a touchdown, but moving the sticks gives you a chance to win. Here we see how Fresno State converts a 3rd and 20 (!!!) after giving up consecutive sacks.
- The play starts off looking like four verticals but he receivers with a flat route by the back. It is a play you all have called in Madden thousands of times. The defense is looking to prevent a long play, with no one within 5 yards of the LOS. But why would Fresno go for a downfield pass after giving up back-to-back sacks? If you remember the old NCAA football games, you probably remember hearing Herbstreit talk about calling a screen when the pass rush is getting home.
- We now see two linemen releasing from the line (dots 1 and 2) and the left tackle is working to collapse the linemen on his side down (yellow arrow). They are stunting into it, but they have to feel like this is off.
- The running back turns back towards the middle of the field and Haener has a clear throwing lane because the left tackle collapsed the end inside. Well done team.
- The Bulldogs now have two linemen (dots 1 and 2) and two receivers (dots 3 and 4) in front of the running back with no defender within 10 yards of the ball. This feels great besides the Bulldogs still need to gain one yard on the play and have 20 to go.
- Often you hear about getting big guys out in space blocking. While they do not get any pancake blocks here, the first lineman gets in front of the linebacker just enough to get the running back to the next level.
- Alright, so the Bulldogs have gained 10 yards and now the cavalry is coming for the Cougars. Surely the four defenders who have the back surrounded with only two blockers can get the job done, right?
- Poor angles give the back the breathing room he needs. First down, Bulldogs.
Bowl Week 2 Preview
This is version 2.0 of the preview. It is hard to come up with blurbs about each game and be accurate with who is in and who is out and the first version felt a bit thin. I will leave what I have but I cannot recommend listening to the last Stanford Steve and The Bear podcast for the best preview.
Friday, December 23rd
Radiance Technologies Independence Bowl: Louisiana vs Houston
Prediction: Louisiana ML (+220)
Player to Watch: Bralen Trahan (S - Louisiana)
Superlative: The 4th of July Bowl
I like the Ragin' Cajuns vs the spread, but that is not the game we are playing. Houston was supposed to be in the NY6 bowl picture in the preseason and things have not worked out. While they may impose their will don't sleep on Louisiana.
Union Home Mortgage Gasparilla Bowl: Wake Forest vs Missouri
Prediction: Missouri ML (+105)Player to Watch: Luther Burden III (WR - Mizzou)Superlative: The Talk Like a Pirate Bowl
Things sort of went off the rails at the end of the year for the Demon Deacons. I am not sure they right the ship here, and Mizzou played some SEC teams close. Give me the Tigers.
Saturday, December 24th
EasyPost Hawai'i Bowl: Middle Tennessee State vs San Diego State
Prediction: SDSU ML (-260)Player to Watch: Michael Shawcroft (LB - SDSU)Superlative: The Best Place to Spend Christmas Bowl
Watch the NFL games on this day, this game will be a snoozer. Plus it always sucks to see someone in Hawai'i when you're not.
Prediction: SDSU ML (-260)
Player to Watch: Michael Shawcroft (LB - SDSU)
Superlative: The Best Place to Spend Christmas Bowl
Watch the NFL games on this day, this game will be a snoozer. Plus it always sucks to see someone in Hawai'i when you're not.
Monday, December 26th
Quick Lane Bowl: New Mexico State vs Bowling Green
Prediction: New Mexico State ML (+143)Player to Watch: Chris Ojoh (LB - NMSU)Superlative: The Boxing Day Bowl
Bowling Green has a -10 point differential per game. They can make even the worst offenses look good. New Mexico State flew Valpo out to thump on them and get bowl eligible, they make it worth it.
Prediction: New Mexico State ML (+143)
Player to Watch: Chris Ojoh (LB - NMSU)
Superlative: The Boxing Day Bowl
Bowling Green has a -10 point differential per game. They can make even the worst offenses look good. New Mexico State flew Valpo out to thump on them and get bowl eligible, they make it worth it.
Tuesday, December 27th
Camelia Bowl: Georgia Southern vs Buffalo
Prediction: Georgia Southern ML (-175)Player to Watch: Kyle Vantrease (QB - Georgia Southern)Superlative: The Chaos Bowl
The Eagles can put the ball in the air and they give up 500 yards a game. I think Buffalo capitalizes in this one, look at the under at 67 as there will likely be some red zone turnovers.
Prediction: Georgia Southern ML (-175)
Player to Watch: Kyle Vantrease (QB - Georgia Southern)
Superlative: The Chaos Bowl
The Eagles can put the ball in the air and they give up 500 yards a game. I think Buffalo capitalizes in this one, look at the under at 67 as there will likely be some red zone turnovers.
SERVPRO First Responder Bowl: Memphis vs Utah State
Prediction: Memphis ML (-305)Player to Watch: Xavier Cullens (LB - Memphis)Superlative: The Sneaky Best Bowl of the Day Bowl
Memphis has good counting stats for a 6-6 team, which means that they play to the level of their opponents. I think they still beat the Aggies though.
Prediction: Memphis ML (-305)
Player to Watch: Xavier Cullens (LB - Memphis)
Superlative: The Sneaky Best Bowl of the Day Bowl
Memphis has good counting stats for a 6-6 team, which means that they play to the level of their opponents. I think they still beat the Aggies though.
TicketSmarter Birmingham Bowl: Coastal Carolina vs East Carolina
Prediction: East Carolina ML (-305)Player to Watch: Keaton Mitchell (RB - ECU)Superlative: The What Could Have Been Bowl
This game could have been awesome. But Coastal is in a free fall and without their head coach and who knows what they will get from their QB with one foot out the door. ECU should be favored by more than -7.5. They have a stud QB, RB, and multiple receivers. Good luck Chanticleers.
Prediction: East Carolina ML (-305)
Player to Watch: Keaton Mitchell (RB - ECU)
Superlative: The What Could Have Been Bowl
This game could have been awesome. But Coastal is in a free fall and without their head coach and who knows what they will get from their QB with one foot out the door. ECU should be favored by more than -7.5. They have a stud QB, RB, and multiple receivers. Good luck Chanticleers.
Guaranteed Rate Bowl: Wisconsin vs Oklahoma State
Prediction: Wisconsin ML (-165)Player to Watch: Nick Herbig (LB - Wisconsin)Superlative: The Who is Playing Bowl
A lot of turnover, both in coaching and players, in this one. I will take the slight favorites but honestly have no idea. This game will be good for a nap.
Prediction: Wisconsin ML (-165)
Player to Watch: Nick Herbig (LB - Wisconsin)
Superlative: The Who is Playing Bowl
A lot of turnover, both in coaching and players, in this one. I will take the slight favorites but honestly have no idea. This game will be good for a nap.
Wednesday, December 28th
Military Bowl Presented by Peraton: UCF vs Duke
Prediction: UCF ML (+135)Player to Watch: John Rhys Plumlee (QB - UCF)Superlative: The Duke Went 8-4?! Bowl
Awesome season for both teams, the Knights are now a perennial standout team as they prepare for the Big 12. Let's hope this one is as good as when the Knights tested Zion in the tournament a few years back.
Prediction: UCF ML (+135)
Player to Watch: John Rhys Plumlee (QB - UCF)
Superlative: The Duke Went 8-4?! Bowl
Awesome season for both teams, the Knights are now a perennial standout team as they prepare for the Big 12. Let's hope this one is as good as when the Knights tested Zion in the tournament a few years back.
AutoZone Liberty Bowl: Kansas vs Arkansas
Prediction: Kansas ML (+125)Player to Watch: Raheim Sanders (RB - Arkansas)Superlative: The Is This a Basketball Matchup? Bowl
Great season for both teams, it is tough to win in the SEC West or in Lawrence, Kansas. I will take the Razorbacks but the Jayhawks have played well no matter the QB this season so do not be surpised if they are moving the ball against a terrible secondary.
Prediction: Kansas ML (+125)
Player to Watch: Raheim Sanders (RB - Arkansas)
Superlative: The Is This a Basketball Matchup? Bowl
Great season for both teams, it is tough to win in the SEC West or in Lawrence, Kansas. I will take the Razorbacks but the Jayhawks have played well no matter the QB this season so do not be surpised if they are moving the ball against a terrible secondary.
San Diego County Credit Union Holiday Bowl: Oregon vs North Carolina
Prediction: Oregon ML (-580)Player to Watch: Drake Maye (QB - UNC)Superlative: The Is Drake Maye Transferring? Bowl
Bo Nix decided to not become an undrafted free agent and is staying in Eugene. Mack Brown had a nice rant about coaches trying to pry Drake Maye away, will they stop collapsing and convince Maye to stick around?
Prediction: Oregon ML (-580)
Player to Watch: Drake Maye (QB - UNC)
Superlative: The Is Drake Maye Transferring? Bowl
Bo Nix decided to not become an undrafted free agent and is staying in Eugene. Mack Brown had a nice rant about coaches trying to pry Drake Maye away, will they stop collapsing and convince Maye to stick around?
TaxAct Texas Bowl: Texas Tech vs Ole Miss
Prediction: Texas Tech ML (+150)Player to Watch: Jaxson Dart (QB - Ole Miss)Superlative: The Shootout Bowl
If this game was in Lubbock it would be Red Raiders by a million. The Rebels ended in a freefall and I think that continues, sorry Lane.
Prediction: Texas Tech ML (+150)
Player to Watch: Jaxson Dart (QB - Ole Miss)
Superlative: The Shootout Bowl
If this game was in Lubbock it would be Red Raiders by a million. The Rebels ended in a freefall and I think that continues, sorry Lane.
Thursday, December 29th
Bad Boy Mowers Pinstripe Bowl: Syracuse vs Minnesota
Prediction: Minnesota ML (-360)Player to Watch: Mohamed Ibrahim (RB - Minnesota)Superlative: The Weirdest Title Sponsor Bowl
Syracuse got off to a great start and then came back to earth. Both teams have questionable attacks but I trust Ibrahim the most. Go Gophers.
Prediction: Minnesota ML (-360)
Player to Watch: Mohamed Ibrahim (RB - Minnesota)
Superlative: The Weirdest Title Sponsor Bowl
Syracuse got off to a great start and then came back to earth. Both teams have questionable attacks but I trust Ibrahim the most. Go Gophers.
Cheez-It Bowl: Oklahoma vs Florida State
Prediction: Florida State ML (-325)Player to Watch: Jordan Travis (QB - FSU)Superlative: The Blue Blood Bowl
Oklahoma rebounded with an impressive recruiting class, but the Seminoles have the better team this year. Travis could be building for the draft, watch out.
Prediction: Florida State ML (-325)
Player to Watch: Jordan Travis (QB - FSU)
Superlative: The Blue Blood Bowl
Oklahoma rebounded with an impressive recruiting class, but the Seminoles have the better team this year. Travis could be building for the draft, watch out.
Valero Alamo Bowl: Texas vs Washington
Prediction: Washington ML (+155)Player to Watch: Jaylan Ford (LB - Texas)Superlative: The Big Penix Energy Bowl
Texas has some straight up studs on defense, but I think Penix keeps chucking the rock around. Can Ewers respond without Robinson and get a jump on Manning? This should be a fun one.
Prediction: Washington ML (+155)
Player to Watch: Jaylan Ford (LB - Texas)
Superlative: The Big Penix Energy Bowl
Texas has some straight up studs on defense, but I think Penix keeps chucking the rock around. Can Ewers respond without Robinson and get a jump on Manning? This should be a fun one.
3 and Out - Bowl Week 1 Totals
Bowl ML Total: (8-4) +2.38 Units
It is hard to make money with such big favorites, but we are in a battle this postseason. Here's to another week. I am going to give out a bunch of picks that I will be playing for fun.1st Pick of the Week: Louisiana +7 (-110) vs Houston
The Ragin' Cajuns can get frisky and Houston may be checked out. I said it above and I'll still take it.2nd Pick of the Week: Texas Tech +3.5 (-110) vs Ole Miss
I think the Red Raiders may win outright but I will leave some money on the table for some points.3rd Pick of the Week: Syracuse team points u16.5 (-122) vs Minnesota
This game will be a snoozer. This allows me to win while I nap.4th Pick of the Week: o66 (-109) Oklahoma vs Florida State
Fireworks! Give me all the points here, surprised this line isn't in the 70's like some others are.5th Pick of the Week: Washington ML (+155) vs Texas
I would maybe same game parlay this with the over, I doubt much running happens and the ball will be in the air a lot. I like Penix to get the job done.6th Pick of the Week: North Carolina +14.5 (-112) vs Oregon
Take the dog in the Holiday Bowl. Another bowl game in a baseball diamond, got to love it.
Bowl ML Total: (8-4) +2.38 Units
It is hard to make money with such big favorites, but we are in a battle this postseason. Here's to another week. I am going to give out a bunch of picks that I will be playing for fun.
1st Pick of the Week: Louisiana +7 (-110) vs Houston
The Ragin' Cajuns can get frisky and Houston may be checked out. I said it above and I'll still take it.
2nd Pick of the Week: Texas Tech +3.5 (-110) vs Ole Miss
I think the Red Raiders may win outright but I will leave some money on the table for some points.
3rd Pick of the Week: Syracuse team points u16.5 (-122) vs Minnesota
This game will be a snoozer. This allows me to win while I nap.
4th Pick of the Week: o66 (-109) Oklahoma vs Florida State
Fireworks! Give me all the points here, surprised this line isn't in the 70's like some others are.
5th Pick of the Week: Washington ML (+155) vs Texas
I would maybe same game parlay this with the over, I doubt much running happens and the ball will be in the air a lot. I like Penix to get the job done.
6th Pick of the Week: North Carolina +14.5 (-112) vs Oregon
Take the dog in the Holiday Bowl. Another bowl game in a baseball diamond, got to love it.
Going Forward and Feedback Requested
Below is the schedule moving forward, below is how our future schedule looks.- 12/30: New Years Bowl Preview
- Winter 2023: QB Draft Breakdowns
- Spring 2023: Mock Drafts
I would love to hear what you have enjoyed about the blog this year! Feel free to DM, text, email, carrier pigeon things you would love to see more of every week. Would you prefer less about the previous week and more film breakdowns and picks? Let me know. Also, if you think a Twitter account, so I could share picks throughout the week and tweet through Saturday's, or a podcast or other avenue would be enjoyable, let me know as well!
- 12/30: New Years Bowl Preview
- Winter 2023: QB Draft Breakdowns
- Spring 2023: Mock Drafts
I would love to hear what you have enjoyed about the blog this year! Feel free to DM, text, email, carrier pigeon things you would love to see more of every week. Would you prefer less about the previous week and more film breakdowns and picks? Let me know. Also, if you think a Twitter account, so I could share picks throughout the week and tweet through Saturday's, or a podcast or other avenue would be enjoyable, let me know as well!
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