Bowlapalooza Week 3 (New Years Bowls and CFP)

Happy New Years everyone, hope you have a fun weekend ahead. One of my resolutions this year is to watch less television, but that does not mean less college football. We have some big games on deck, let's get started!

Bowl Week 2 Thoughts

The people in the Desert set amazing lines, that Ragin' Cajuns push was a stroke of genius in the bowl game... Sam Hartman played well in his last Demon Deacons game and I think he would be a great fit at Notre Dame... MTSU made two trips to Hawai'i and got to play one bowl game, glad they made it count... The New Mexico State hit on Bowling Green's quarterback was as dirty as it gets. I picked the Aggies to win but was cheering for BGSU after that... Really impressed with Buffalo weathering all of the transfers to get the win... Memphis and East Carolina took care of business. How much fun was that Pirates' win?... Luke Fickell coached the bowl game and got his first win. The transfer in from Oklahoma at QB is big, can he build momentum in Madison?... What a play by Bo Nix to get the ball out and get the win against an all out blitz. The Holiday Bowl may be my favorite game of the week... Texas Tech and Duke were very business-like in their wins against more erratic coaches... What a heartbreaking way to lose by Kansas. Arkansas was quite physical but that secondary needs reworked next year to give that offense some help...

Favorite Play of the Week

Here we are in triple overtime after Arkansas' second half collapse. Now starting in triple overtime it becomes a 2pt conversion competition. These plays are tough to run because the end zone compresses the secondary down. Let's see how Arkansas won the game.

• We don't get to see the initial shift by the Razorbacks, but they started with one of the receivers on each side standing next to KJ in the pistol with the running back behind. This shift trapped the Jayhawks in a Bear front and now they have to play man across the board (dot 3 has the running back). There is no safety help over the top and every defender (1, 2, 4, and 5) is head up on their man. 

• Arkansas anticipates that they would get this coverage and runs the mesh concept. The right outside receiver (dot 1) and the left slot (dot 2) run crossing routes that sort of set a natural pick (hold on for more about a pick).
• The right slot (dot 3) runs a post route to the middle of the field for a jump ball opportunity and the left outside receiver (dot 4) runs a fade in case they liked the matchup and to clear room for the drags and post.
• The running back (dot 5) runs a wheel route. If you play Madden or the old NCAA football games you have likely called this exact play as Mesh Post. It's a basic air raid concept that everyone has and is a great man beater.
• The middle linebacker (dot 6) is spying the quarterback. KJ Jefferson had a great game rushing and is a bull at the goal line. This takes another defender out of coverage.

• The drag turns into a pick play on the safety (yellow circle) who is defending the wheel route (dot 1). This is technically illegal but every team does it and they usually allow it as long as you make it look like you aren't setting a pick.
• The receiver's corner (dot 2) recognizes the pick and starts trying to backpedal to make the play on the running back. This is amazing play recognition by him.

• Heck of an effort by the corner. The 2pt conversion is good and Arkansas hangs on to win. 

Bowl Week 2 Preview

As I mentioned at the top, we have some fun games this weekend. So if you're standing outside waiting for someone to leave the bar an hour before midnight so you can get it (spoiler: you won't get in before midnight) then pull up the games on your phone and enjoy!

Friday, December 30th

Duke's Mayo Bowl: Maryland vs NC State

Prediction: NC State ML (-115)

Player to Watch: Drake Thomas (LB - NC State)

Superlative: The Best Post-Game Celebration Bowl

Both teams did not have the season that they were hoping for when it began. But it could be a fun one! The Wolfpack used Duck Tape and chewing gum to piece together a respectable season and we will see if their coach gets to swim in mayo after the game.

Tony the Tiger Sun Bowl: Pittsburgh vs UCLA

Prediction: UCLA ML (-215)

Player to Watch: Zach Charbonnet (RB - UCLA)

Superlative: The We Think It's a Big Deal Because It's on CBS Bowl

Midway through the second quarter of the Sun Bowl I always realize it isn't the best game. But because it is the one bowl on CBS I always get excited for it. UCLA is building something but Narduzzi has done well in the ACC. I think the Bruins have just a bit more.

TaxSlayer Gator Bowl: Notre Dame vs South Carolina

Prediction: Notre Dame ML (-140)

Player to Watch: Audric Estime (RB - Notre Dame)

Superlative: The Is South Carolina Good After Beating Both Orange Bowl Teams Bowl

I think a lot of the money will be on the Gamecocks in this one. But should that be the case? I think Notre Dame has the more even keeled mindset and will be able to ride the bowl week wave and come in and win.

Barstool Sports Arizona Bowl: Ohio vs Wyoming

Prediction: Wyoming ML (-110)

Player to Watch: Easton Gibbs (LB - Wyoming)

Superlative: The Barstool Finally Gets a Bowl Bowl

Can we get Big Cat to jump out of a plane in this one? I like the Bobcats, I thought they had a great year and if their QB didn't get hurt they would have won the MAC. Such is life. This will be hard to watch but worth it to see how they do the broadcast.

Capital One Orange Bowl: Tennessee vs Clemson

Prediction: Clemson ML (-210)

Player to Watch: Cade Klubnik (QB - Clemson)

Superlative: The Orangest Orange Bowl

Could there be a more Orange Orange Bowl? This one could look weird on tv. I am not sure who will be playing hard and what the effort will look like, but I bet Dabo cares about getting another 12 win season and they squeak it out.

Saturday, December 31st

Allstate Sugar Bowl: Alabama vs Kansas State

Prediction: Alabama ML (-245)

Player to Watch: Deuce Vaughn (RB - Kansas State)

Superlative: The Weirdest Tint of Indoor Lighting on the Jerseys Bowl

I am totally understanding of opt outs but I also love Bryce Young and Will Anderson playing. If you bought Bama before the news broke good for you, I hope both ball out.

TransPerfect Music City Bowl: Iowa vs Kentucky

Prediction: Iowa ML (-130)

Player to Watch: Jack Campbell (LB - Iowa)

Superlative: The Best Afternoon Nap Until the Masters Bowl

First off, why do we have bowl rematches? Second off, why do it with the two most boring teams? Just watch the Hawkeye linebacker or do something better with your time.

Monday, January 2nd

ReliaQuest Bowl: Mississippi State vs Illinois

Prediction: Mississippi State ML (-117)

Player to Watch: Sydney Brown (CB - Illinois)

Superlative: This Swing Your Sword Bowl

I think it is awesome the Bulldogs are playing to honor Mike Leach. There will be a huge emotional wave at the beginning of this one. Illinois has a physical defense that can give the Air Raid fits but with Ryan Walters at Purdue they may be leaderless. Definitely worth turning on.

Goodyear Cotton Bowl Classic: Tulane vs USC

Prediction: Tulane ML (+115)

Player to Watch: Tyjae Spears (RB - Tulane)

Superlative: The Green Wave Bowl

The Heisman trophy winner is expected to play, so that is impressive. USC got pushed around by Utah and Tulane did beat Kansas State this year. Could they get another big win? Either way, awesome they made it.

Cheez-It Citrus Bowl: LSU vs Purdue

Prediction: LSU ML (-600)

Player to Watch: Harold Perkins Jr. (Edge - LSU)

Superlative: The Purdue Roster is a Corpse Bowl

This game could be really ugly. I like the moves Purdue is making for next season, and they do have good pieces on the roster, but the Bayou Bengals will be wanting a big win and Purdue is without a lot of pieces. Enjoy all the Drew Brees sideline shots.

Rose Bowl Game Presented by Prudential: Penn State vs Utah

Prediction: Utah ML (-130)

Player to Watch: Dalton Kincaid (TE - Utah)

Superlative: The Contrast of Coaches Bowl

Franklin is amazing at social media and Whittingham may not even know what social media is. I think the Utes will want to win after last year's awesome game and will impose their will. Enjoy the parade beforehand Big Ten fans.

College Football Playoff Semi-Finals

Since these games are so big I figured we should have a separate section. The semi-finals have been rough games in recent years but I think we could have at least one good game to watch.

Vrbo Fiesta Bowl: TCU vs Michigan

Prediction: Michigan ML (-305)

Player to Watch on Michigan: Will Johnson (CB - Michigan)

Player to Watch on TCU: Garret Wallow (LB - Michigan)

Superlative: The Best Uniform Game Bowl

Both of these teams were much better in the second halves of games than the first. Could the first half be rather rough then? I think TCU may come out firing and I am curious to see if the Wolverines keep generating big plays. TCU's defense has gotten better and I think they can keep Edwards at bay for awhile, so Michigan will need to win outside. On defense, Michigan needs to keep Gemon Green away from Quentin Johnston as much as possible, as the Horned Frogs will work to exploit that matchup if they get it. Wolverines win, but I think the Horned Frogs put up a good fight.

Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl: Ohio State vs Georgia

Prediction: Ohio State ML (+210)

Player to Watch on Georgia: Kelee Ringo (CB - Georgia)

Player to Watch on Ohio State: Cade Stover (TE - Ohio State)

Superlative: The Can Ohio State Win Outside? Bowl

I think the Buckeyes actually match up the best with Georgia of any of the teams in the playoffs. Kelee Ringo versus Marvin Harrison Jr. will be the matchup of the game on the outside but watch out for Jalen Carter as the inside of the Ohio State line can be quite pedestrian and CJ Stroud is not the best mover of the pocket. While the outside is important, I am excited to see what Stroud does to get the ball out there. My pick is reflective of the odds rather than who I think will actually win.

3 and Out - Bowl Week Totals

Bowl ML Total: (18-10) +4.89 Units (Updated 12/30)

Picks for Week 2 Total: (4-1-1) +3.27 Units (Updated 12/30)

Thinks are looking good but Thursday night is a big night for the picks I made last week. Below are picks for the New Years bowls.

1st Pick of the Week: Notre Dame -2.5 (-112) vs South Carolina

This will be a business trip for the Irish and I think the Gamecocks are overrated after their two awesome victories at the end of the season.

2nd Pick of the Week: u31 (-107) Iowa vs Kentucky

First off, you have to play this. Second, who is playing offense for either team? This game will be a rock fight, but at least the fans can go out on Broadway for New Year's Eve.

3rd Pick of the Week: Ohio State ML (+210) vs Georgia

This pick will probably look really stupid. But I think the Buckeyes have the best chance to beat the Bulldogs in the playoff so I will likely sprinkle at least a half unit on it.

4th Pick of the Week: LSU -14.0 (-120) vs Purdue

At least I can wipe away the tears of a Purdue beatdown with some dollar bills. The line has moved up to -14.5 but I would buy the half point so you get the push.

5th Pick of the Week: TCU 1st Half +4.5 (-110) vs Michigan

Michigan is a classic second half team (see, Ohio State and Purdue Wins). They wear opponents down and then have big plays late. So why are they favored by more at half against the Horned Frogs than over the whole game? Vegas did this in the Purdue game and I hope to capitalize a second time.

6th Pick of the Week: Ohio State 1st Half +4.5 (-122) vs Georgia

Georgia is the more physical team and the full game spread is hovering around +6.5 and +7. They are giving us points in the first half and let's take them.

Going Forward and Feedback Requested

Below is the schedule moving forward, below is how our future schedule looks.

• Winter 2023: QB Draft Breakdown
• Spring 2023: Mock Drafts

I would love to hear what you have enjoyed about the blog this year! Feel free to DM, text, email, carrier pigeon things you would love to see more of every week. Would you prefer less about the previous week and more film breakdowns and picks? Let me know. Also, if you think a Twitter account, so I could share picks throughout the week and tweet through Saturday's, or a podcast or other avenue would be enjoyable, let me know as well!