National Championship and Week 18 with Alex Garibaldi

 

National Championship and NFL Week 18 with Alex Garibaldi

First off, I want to start the week by saying how awesome it is that Damar Hamlin is now awake and responsive. That was certainly a terrifying moment on Monday night. I obviously did not play the sport past high school so I want to share Ryan Clark's conversation with Scott Van Pelt as he did such a great job talking on Monday night.

I also wanted to share Domonique Foxworth's appearance on The Ryen Russillo Podcast as he talked about how he would've responded when he worked for the Players' Union. Amazing stuff by two men who played at the highest level.

Bowl Week 3 Thoughts

Friday was full of physical games and back and forth's and started a weekend where we remembered why we love the bowl season... Alabama brought the physicality for 60 minutes and Kansas State could not hang... Amazing semifinals. A ton of broken plays in the desert and Quentin Johnston is an absolute stud. I think Michigan was not ready for the speed... Ohio State had an amazing game plan and Ryan Day called a great game. I thought Stroud showed a lot, the big criticism of him is he lacks feel in the pocket and does not scramble well. He took a bad sack on a nickel blitz but did well throwing outside the pocket and I think is QB1 in the draft... Tough to see Utah lose their QB two straight Rose Bowl's but awesome moment for Sean Clifford... Mike Leach would've loved that bowl game in Tampa... 

Favorite Play of the Week

I totally understand skipping bowl games for a lot of players. But I also thought it was cool Bryce Young and Will Anderson played for Alabama. Usually players are passing on any non-CFP game. This was a "down" year for Bama. But these two guys wanted to play one last time for the Crimson Tide. Bryce Young absolutely balled out, and I think the play below can show us why I think he is a great fit for a Shanahan / McVay coaching tree offense.

• We start off on the far hash with the running back (dot 1) behind the quarterback in the Pistol formation. This formation, in theory, was designed to give the quarterback the chance to be in Shot Gun while the running back can run downhill.
• Alabama sets up with two tight ends (dots 2 and 3), both set off the line of scrimmage. This will allow either tight end to come across the formation at the snap for a cutback block on a zone run or they can then leak out into the flat on a bootleg. If you go back and watch highlights from when the Rams went to the Super Bowl with Goff they ran this concept with only one tight end and had Kupp come in motion for the cutback / flat route.
• The last tip of the cap to the Shanahan offense is the tight wide receivers (dots 4 and 5). You see this now in San Francisco but go back and watch Matt Ryan's MVP highlights and you will see former Crimson Tide wide receiver Julio Jones split in tight. This makes corners have to defend both in-breaking and out-breaking routes from the outside receivers, something outside corners are not used to.
• The Wildcats respond to the short width of the formation with the corners in tight and the linebackers are up close because at this point in the game the Tide are imposing their will in the run game.

• Alabama starts out with faking the outside zone to the short side of the field (dot 1). Passing off play action creates more openings and pulls the linebackers even closer.
• The tight end to the play side (dot 3) is coming across the formation on that cutback block. We can see both him and the other tight end (dot 2) are settling in to block rather than leaking out to the flat. If you want your quarterback to play in the bowl game you have to protect him, which is easier to do with seven men blocking. Alabama has the receivers to win with only two running routes.

• Bryce Young (dot 1) is showing that he is rolling out to the wide side of the field on a bootleg.
• One tight end (dot 2) is double teaming the defensive end with the tackle and the other tight end (dot 3) is awaiting the rush from the spy linebacker (dot 4).

• Young flips his hips back to the short side of the field and unleashes the ball (dot 1).
• The tight end picks up the linebacker and there is no one near the quarterback. Way to scheme protection Bill O'Brien.

• What an absolute dart. I love Young's calmness and touch on the ball. Absolutely beautiful play.

National Championship Preview

CFP National Title: TCU vs Georgia

Prediction: Georgia ML (-435)

Player to Watch on Georgia: Brock Bowers (TE - Georgia)

Player to Watch on TCU: Quentin Johnston (WR - TCU)

Superlative: The New Dynasty? Bowl

I feel super chalky all around. Marvin Harrison Jr. ate during the Peach Bowl and I want to see how Georgia adjusts for Johnston. Duggans is a better scrambler than most of the QB's Georgia faced this year, does that give UGA problems like it did Michigan? On offense, the Bulldogs may be without some healthy playmakers, namely human mountain Darnell Washington. TCU runs the 3-3-5 but plays it physically and so Bowers will be moving everywhere. Can he block enough so the Horned Frogs have to come up and then Bennett can start pushing the ball down field? I think it will be a close first half, and I hope TCU hangs, but the Bulldogs get the win.

An NFL Conversation with Alex Garibaldi

It is the final weekend of the NFL regular season! I did not get to follow the NFL too closely this year, so I am calling in some help to get everyone all caught up. My college roommate, Alex Garibaldi, is one of my favorite people to talk football with. He's a huge Vikings fan and played tight end in high school so he sees the game differently than myself a lot of the time. Below is our conversation on the NFL as we head into the final weekend.

Jay: Hey Alex! Happy New Year to you. As we head into the final week of the NFL regular season, what would you say has been the big theme or storyline of the NFL season for those of us who are more focused on Saturday's than Sunday's?

Alex: The big theme this week is obviously the playoffs. There are a handful of questions that will be answered in the next coming days. 

The first question stems from the terrible news with regards to Damar Hamlin; we all know what happened and we keep hoping for good news. What will the NFL do about the AFC playoffs? The Bills and Bengals are both top contenders in the AFC and Monday's game had a huge impact on seeding, the NFL correctly cancelled the game, but how does that impact standings? 

The most fun aspect of this weekend are 2 games that are essentially a "win and in" scenario. These games are even more fun when you take into consideration the teams involved and how nobody could've predicted them in this situation. Those teams are the Jaguars and the Lions, both have been a laughingstock in the league for over a decade. The Jaguars take on the Titans, the winner wins the AFC south and gets a home playoff game, the loser goes on vacation. The Titans have ruled the AFC South in recent years but injuries have plagued them this year. The Jaguars are a team loaded with young talent, most notably Trevor Lawrence, they were the worst team in the league last year so their jump into playoff contention has the whole nation excited. Next up is the Lions and the Packers. The Packers are win and in after a horrid start to the season, but Aaron Rodgers is back to his old HOF self. The Lions are the fun part of this game. Maybe the streakiest team in the league, starting out 1-6 and now sitting at 8-8. Dan Campbell has them biting knee caps, they need some help from the Rams to make the playoffs but will they be biting some playoff knee caps? We'll see.

Jay: Dang, sounds like the perfect time to check in! It seems like the big turn arounds are coming due to improved quarterback play. Obviously the league has adjusted the rules to make things easier for offenses but the cream of the crop can still rise to the top. We will dive into the playoffs more next week so let's talk about teams that maybe need a signal caller or the dreaded coaching search. What teams do you think we will be in the market for either a new signal caller and / or head coach?

Alex: The quarterback carousel could be very interesting this offseason, the way I see it, there are a few tiers of teams in the carousel.

First off are the teams that are without a doubt making a change - Jets, Texans, Raiders, Colts and the Saints. The Raiders have been one of the leagues biggest disappointments this year and the recent benching of Derek Carr signifies a change under center is underway. The Texans will have the 1st or 2nd pick, they have probably the worst roster in the league but this draft offers some long term solutions at QB, they will jump early. The Jets, Colts and Saints all fall under the "failed experiment" category. Zach Wilson has been a tremendous disappointment, he has all the talent in the world but lacks the necessary maturity, leadership and decision making to prevent the Jets from moving on. The Colts and Saints have been in flux at QB since the retirements of Luck and Brees, they keep attempting band aids at the position but need a full reboot.

The next tier, I like to call "probably should make a move" - Commanders, Falcons, Panthers, 49ers and Titans. All 4 of these teams I could see riding it out with Heinecke, Ridder, Darnold, Lance/Purdy and Tannehill/Willis respectively. Just because I could see them doing it, doesn't mean I think they should.

Old QB's won't be stars forever - Buccaneers, Rams, Packers. Any surprise that these 3 teams have disappointed this year? I know it is hard to move off of a HOF QB, especially when they aren't necessarily the problem, but sometimes it is better to use them as an asset in a rebuild than it is to keep patching around them.

Darkhorse teams that could surprise for the good or the bad - Ravens, Patriots, Cardinals, Seahawks, Giants, Vikings. All of these teams have "their guy" right now. Lamar could walk, it would be wild if he did and the Ravens likely won't let him but he could. The Patriots, Cardinals and Giants all have guys that have been invested heavily into in recent drafts but have not met expectations, they could potentially do better than Mac Jones, Murray and Daniel Jones but they could also do much worse. The Seahawks and Vikings have a solid guy at QB but not a long term answer.

Locked into a tough spot - Browns and Broncos. Yikes

The coaching carousel is less exciting but still has a lot of intrigue. The Panthers, Broncos and Colts have already fired their coach and a guy by the name of Jim Harbaugh is already flying around in rumors. A few other teams could be looking to make a change - Cardinals, Raiders, Buccaneers and the Browns. All 4 teams have been disappointing this year and have shown little encouragement for the future. NFL owners are not typically known for their patience, so don't be surprised if those 4 teams have openings in a few short weeks.

Jay: A lot to unpack here. I certainly am hoping some of the dark horses and older QB teams shake things up, but we shall see. I also know a lot of people in Ann Arbor are in flight tracking mode and seeing what is going to happen with Harbaugh. 

You mentioned teams that have invested a lot of capital in the draft around quarterbacks. I feel like the league has moved to teams needing to pair a stud receiver with your quarterback and everyone is loading up at corner and defensive line to combat this. As we kind of round out this section and head towards a formal preview of the weekend ahead, who are some non-quarterbacks we should be watching this weekend in big time matchups?

Alex: There are a few matchups that should be fun to watch this weekend, especially in the big time games mentioned previously. The one I am interested in seeing is Amon-Ra St. Brown vs Jaire Alexander. Both these teams need a win and both should lean heavily on their best player (on their respective side of the field) to help them get that done. Jaire did a fantastic job on Justin Jefferson last week, although he had a lot of help. Amon-Ra is an exciting young receiver in this league, he has been quietly good and at times loudly amazing. He has 4 games over 100 yards this year, 2 of which he had 2 touchdowns. Do the Packers have Alexander follow St. Brown or will they give safety help to a secondary corner? 

Another matchup I am excited to see is in the Titans Jags game. I love my big guys so here's a special one for you. Jeffrey Simmons vs Brandon Scherff. Jeffrey Simmons is listed as questionable for this game but if he goes, he has the potential to ruin an offense. Simmons is a smaller name since he is still young and plays on a small market team but if you watch him one time, you quickly realize that he is a top interior defensive lineman in the league. Trevor Lawrence has been humming lately, if Simmons can get pressure in his face, he could disrupt the Jaguars entire plan. The guy tasked with stopping Simmons? Only the highest paid Offensive Guard in NFL history, Brandon Scherff. A top free agent prize for the Jaguars this offseason signing a 3 year $49.5m contract, Scherff is the primary guy to protect the middle of the pocket. If we do not hear Simmons name much during the broadcast, Scherff will be the guy to thank if you are a Jags fan. If you love some old fashioned big man football, this matchup is must watch.

3 and Out - Alex and Jay's Picks

Bowl ML Total: (24-17) +1.95 Units

Bowl Picks Total: (9-2-1) +6.65 Units

We absolutely killed it on the bowl game picks and I believe we finished positive overall this year. Absolutely amazing stuff. Enjoy Alex and I's picks for this weekend.

Alex's 1st Pick of the Week: Jaguars -6.5 (-110) vs Titans

Alex's 2nd Pick of the Week: Panthers +3.5 (-115) vs Saints

Alex's 3rd Pick of the Week: u42.5 (-110) Patriots vs Buffalo

Alex's 4th Pick of the Week: o49 (-110) Lions vs Packers

Jay 1st Pick of the Week: 1st Half TCU +7 (+100) vs Georgia

I don't love it, and I could see the Bulldogs blitzing the Frogs, but why not?

Jay 2nd Pick of the Week: Brock Bowers O0.5 Receiving TD's (+115)

Bowers will put a stamp on this game, namely in the left corner of the end zone where he always seems to be winning a jump ball.

Jay 3rd Pick of the Week: Max Duggan O223.5 Passing Yards (-115)

At some point I think the Horned Frogs will get down and have to throw the ball so I am taking the over on Duggan passing yards.

Going Forward

Below is the schedule moving forward.

• NFL Playoff Previews: TBD
• Winter 2023: QB Draft Breakdown
• Spring 2023: Mock Drafts

I would love to hear what you have enjoyed about the blog this year! Feel free to DM, text, email, carrier pigeon things you would love to see more of every week. Would you prefer less about the previous week and more film breakdowns and picks? Let me know. Also, if you think a Twitter account, so I could share picks throughout the week and tweet through Saturday's, or a podcast or other avenue would be enjoyable, let me know as well!