2023 NFL Draft - 10 Quarterback Thoughts

As we all take a breath to unwind from the football season and prepare for the draft in May, I wanted to share some thoughts on the quarterbacks in this year's class. These organizations are now worth billions of dollars and their hopes and dreams often rest on the shoulders of the signal caller. That means it is imperative to get the right one for your franchise, something we all know. So why are we so bad at evaluating future quarterbacks?

I think a few things come to mind. First, we don't know how these young men will react when they are given all of this responsibility and it is their full-time job. Second, the windows they are throwing into are very small and there are a lot of large humans trying to inflict pain on them while they try to find which window to throw into. Heavy is the head that wears the crown, and if you can handle it you are rewarded with being the face of the league and millions of dollars. 

I can't sit down with these players and interview them. I will share my thoughts on how well they seem to process the play, how accurate they are in delivering the ball, and if the routes they are asked to throw on Saturday's are hiding a flaw in how they will perform on Sunday's. Below are my 10 Thoughts on this year's class:

1. CJ Stroud can layer the ball and make every throw

Stroud is my favorite passer to watch in this draft. When he can set his feet he has a quick and smooth delivery that puts the ball where he wants it at the correct speed. So many times quarterbacks throw rockets that do not go over linebackers and in front of safeties. Stroud has no problems with these throws:

Or throwing dimes in the red zone:

He also does a great job throwing the deep ball away from defenders:

Stroud can often struggle with moving in the pocket and throwing under duress. But if you give him time to point and shoot he throws the best ball. He did show great improvement in the game against Georgia:

I always love the complaint, "if you get pressure in his face he struggles". Every quarterback in the league struggles with that blitz, and that is why Aaron Donald is the most important defensive player in the league. But he can get rattled and it carries on to the next throw.

2. Bryce Young is a dream for the Shanahan / McVay / Kubiak offense

Bryce Young is the most calm quarterback ever; the dude's pulse could compete with James Bond's in a game. I view Young as a great distributor; he can diagnose plays with the best of them and get the ball to receivers in space. This seems to be the preferred method for Nick Saban quarterbacks since they have gone to the spread as Tua and Mac Jones both are great pre-snap and at getting the ball accurately to a receiver in space:

Where Young takes things to the next level is his creative ability in scrambling. He does a phenomenal job of staying calm and scrambling to throw: 

He is not looking to take off unless absolutely necessary, but he does so with great success as we saw against Auburn in 2021 and against Texas this past season:

Young does not have the rocket launcher that many of  the top QB's in the NFL now seem to have (e.g., Mahomes, Allen, Herbert) but he can push the ball if he can step into it:

He does not have the size to stand in the pocket and take hits while his men get downfield like Burrow. I think he would fit well in a scheme that features a lot of play action and bootlegs along with the quick game. Can you imagine him rolling out and flicking intermediate throws to Deebo, Aiyuk, and Kittle? It would be beautiful.

3. Will Levis will look great in shorts and climb up the board this spring

Be prepared to hear a lot of comps of Levis to Josh Allen this spring. He plays the game like a linebacker, which has its pro's and con's. But the man is a physical specimen. With better tape in 2021 and a bad line this year he slid back to day 2 for now but I bet will be going top 15 in mocks here soon. Look at the size and speed:

And the arm strength:

This guy was made for the draft process. Will he be able to put things together like Allen has? I think high upside could be the way to go if you are taking a QB early, so maybe that is the play. If you only watch highlights the man is amazing. Consistency is tough, and sometimes that means being the even keeled player. We shall see.

4. Anthony Richardson's new fan base will just watch the Utah game

When people said, "why even play the college football season after week 1?" you can point to Anthony Richardson being the Heisman favorite after the Utah game. I mean, what is this play?

The whole highlights are really good:

But that is not what makes a quarterback. Kentucky figured out how to muddle up Richardson's reads and his footwork was not consistent when he has to move off his first read. The guy also can sail some balls, likely because of that sloppy footwork and a tendency to not extend through the ball so he can drive the ball yet get the proper arc:

I can understand people wanting to swing big on potential. With the way the NFL game is officiated you can run your QB more because they aren't getting hit on every pass play. Now that a lot of the physicality has been removed from the secondary, smaller receivers who can run under errant deep throws are making life easier for quarterbacks who have cannons but may struggle with accuracy. But you will be limited on intermediate throws and your offense could be inconsistent. I would take him if he is still around in the second round.

5. Stetson Bennett is Colt McCoy 2.0 (but Brandon Weeden's Age)

Watch Stetson highlights:

Now watch this grainy footage of Colt McCoy at Texas:

Colt McCoy has had a great career as a pro, so that is not a knock on Bennett. The reason he will likely be drafted lower is his age. A low ceiling quarterback who will turn 26 as a rookie is a tough scene so he will likely go in the 6th round when you combine the age with the lower ceiling.

6. Hendon Hooker has a rocket and can run, but he can't do both

Hendon Hooker can sling it:

Hendon Hooker can run with authority:

But when Hendon Hooker tries to scramble he is not looking to throw:

I like Hooker a lot. His delivery is a bit long, but he is quick twitch and can sling it. He is older like Bennett, but definitely has figured things out. Maybe you get some of the developed years instead of having to see him grow? 

7. Max Duggan will struggle to throw outside throws

Duggan had an awesome season for TCU and that should always be remembered. But I think this will be more like Tebow, where the college stuff does not translate to the NFL game. Duggan has a long windup delivery, albeit one that had a great season:

He also struggles to throw opposite sideline throws and the intermediate throws where he has to drive the ball. TCU knew this and utilized his legs to bring safeties up so he could throw deep shots over them and let his receivers run under them, but watch his highlights and the opposite side throws are more absent: 

These aren't throws that always work in the league and I think that will hurt him. But I certainly will be cheering for him.

8. Jake Haener will have a 3 week stint where he sets the league on fire

I have a soft spot for Haener, as many of you know if you read this blog. The guy has a tight throwing motion, always has his feet under him, and makes great reads. Just check out these plays below:

That is some clean stuff. Does he have lower upside than Levis and Richardson? Absolutely. This is why he will fall in the draft. But I would bet at some point he has a short stint where he comes in and is prepared for the moment ala Case Keenum, Ryan Fitzpatrick, and others. Will it last and he becomes the next Kirk Cousins? I could see it, but odds are it won't happen. But his name will lead Get Up! at some point for a huge Sunday win.

9. Some QB's are worth mining for gold late in the draft

Day 3 there will be a wide variety of opinions on quarterbacks franchise-to-franchise. Some teams prefer high floors and some prefer upside. I can't say which one is best for each team, but here are some guys to watch.

Jaren Hall: Similar to Bennett but a bit more upside maybe? Could be a great backup to have in the locker room as he could fit in a variety of schemes.

Aidan O'Connell: This man is a statue. But he can thread the needle if given a pocket. He is not a fit for bootlegs but can move the pocket a bit on outside zone and then throw.

Tanner McKee: Stanford QB's are still living off of Andrew Luck. This guy is super tall with long arms that are everywhere when he throws. It can be hard to be consistent with this. When it is right he slings it well.

Tyson Bagent: A Division II wonderkid. Every draft has to have one. It was kind of hard to find film, so I will say he had athleticism but was very upright and thin for the hits he was taking. Certainly a developmental flyer.

10. Final ranking of QB's in the draft

You finally made it to the end, enjoy the rankings below. We will see how the draft process shakes out and I cannot wait for draft weekend:

1. CJ Stroud - Top 10
2. Bryce Young - Top 10
3. Anthony Richardson - Round 2 - Round 3
4. Jake Haener - Round 2 - Round 3
5. Hendon Hooker - Round 2 - Round 3
6. Will Levis - Round 2 - Round 3
7. Jaren Hall - Round 4 - Round 6
8. Stetson Bennett - Round 5 - Round 7
9. Max Duggan - Round 6 - UDFA
10. Aidan O'Connell - Round 6 - UDFA