Draft Questions and Mock with Alex Plus Some Bets

In this week's blog we ask my old roommate Alex his thoughts on some positions groups and how he is viewing the draft prospects coming out this spring before diving into a first round mock. I close out the blog with a few draft bets that I like, so maybe we can all be parking in the same garage on draft night, which is fast approaching.

Questions

Jay: Alex, It is our favorite time of the year, maybe even more so than the actual football season (kidding). Before we dive into our first mock leading up to draft night, I have some questions for you. 

There is a lot of talk in this draft about the quarterbacks and a few top studs. But there are four position groups that I really enjoy thinking about. Let's start with the tight ends. I think we can agree that Michael Mayer, Dalton Kincaid, and Darnell Washington are the top three. Do you have an argument with that statement and if not, how would you rank those three on your big board?

Alex: Draft season is the best season, we all know that. I don't know about you but I love seeing how teams see their future and how they view what building a successful NFL team looks like. 

TE's are always a weird group in the NFL draft. There is not a 1st round TE every year, rarely 2 1st round guys and almost never 3 1st round guys - which is what we could be looking at this year. I do not have an argument with those top 3, I don't believe many do. It is within that 3 where the debate starts. TE's especially are team fits in the NFL, for example, a WR type Travis Kelce, when used correctly, is a top 5 weapon in the league but he would not be as effective if he is used as an extra offensive tackle like George Kittle is a lot of the time. Both top guys in the league, both have vastly different skill sets. 

I personally love Darnell Washington, he is a physical freak listed at 6'7" 265 lbs but is maybe the most athletic out of the 3 guys? He is not as polished of a route runner or pure receiver as Kincaid is but he is a more physically imposing threat, a better blocker and in my eyes, has a higher ceiling. I think Kincaid would be next on my list, a solid route runner and can stretch the field like another receiver would be able to. Mayer is kind of in the same skill set group as Washington - good blocker, good not great receiver. I just think Washington's size and athleticism separates him from Mayer. So my official rankings would be Washington, Kincaid and Mayer.

Jay: Wow! Love the fireworks to kick it off. It is a weird position in that fit truly does matter. It will also be interesting to see how each player adapts if they are taken in the first round because we have seen a lot of tight ends struggle early in their careers. A lot of people have Mayer first on their board, so I love you flipping to the upside of Washington. I would love to see him be a 49er (I would love to see any skill player ever as a 49er for one season to see what Shanahan draws up) because him and Kittle could do some crazy things. Could you play with 4 linemen on the field and then make the defense always scramble to figure out eligibility?

The next group that I want to hear your thoughts on is the edge rusher crowd. After Will Anderson Jr., my personal favorite player to watch in the class, it seems very muddled. I am a big Lukas Van Ness guy but I would opt to play him at a 3 technique to just create chaos. I don't really worry about the no-starts thing because Iowa does everything differently than the rest of college football. If you had to rank Van Ness, Tyree Wilson, Nolan Smith, and Myles Murphy how would you do it?

Alex: Will Anderson is the clear cut #1 guy for the edge, maybe even for defensive players in the draft. But I agree, after him, those top 4 can go any which way. I personally would go Wilson, Van Ness, Murphy and Smith. When I look at edge guys, yes run defending is extremely important, but if I am drafting in the top 10-15, I'm going with the best pass rusher and to me, that is Tyree Wilson. He just has all the traits plus he is long - at least 1.5" longer arms than the other 3 guys listed. That gives him the ability to reach blockers before they can reach him. I agree with you on Van Ness, I love the idea of a special 3rd down package that puts him at the 3 technique and try to get him 1 on 1 with a guard. Admittedly I don't know a ton about Murphy yet but I just don't see it with Nolan Smith yet. He's small at 6'2" 240 lbs, so I think that limits him to a 3-4 OLB. Also his strength, despite his size, is actually his run stuffing ability over his pass rushing. Some teams might view that as a positive and can teach him to rush the passer but I would rather get the pass rusher and teach him run defending than the other way around.

Jay: Valid point about Smith, he seems like a guy who I could see playing up in Foxboro and being more of an all around guy. I have some more questions, but we can save those for the next mock. I’ll throw it back to you for the first pick and we can alternate. Give me who you would pick as the GM of the Panthers and 2-5 sentences on why.

Mock Draft

#1 Panthers: Bryce Young

Alex: Alright it is important to clarify that this draft is going to be what GM's Jay and Alex would do. If I was running the Panthers, I'm trotting out Bryce Young as my week 1 starter next year. I am tempted to take Richardson because he is such a physical specimen and has a sky high ceiling, but there's a reason Florida was just fine when he was there and I don't want to mortgage my franchise on that. So Bryce Young is the guy, yes he's small but he is a proven winner with an impeccable ability to make a play. That play can be the correct play where he reads the play right, or it could be a broken down play where he is able to extend. He is great at using his legs to extend to throw. A lot of young QBs run out of the pocket and they're gone, he runs out of the pocket and keeps his eyes downfield, which I love.

#2 Texans: CJ Stroud

Jay: As the faux-GM of the Texans I was tempted to give my new defensive-minded coach Will Anderson Jr and wait to draft Luke Maye or Caleb Williams next year. But I’ll take the best pure passer in this class in Stroud. I see your point of Young looking like a pocket-sized Mahomes but I’m more than happy with my new signal caller.

#3 Cardinals: Will Anderson Jr.

Alex: This is a prime trade out spot, this pick WILL be traded, if not, fire the actual GM and hire your boy. But, for the sake of this mock, Cardinals are taking Will Anderson Jr. Give me the best defensive prospect and a cornerstone piece for years to come on that side of the ball.

#4 Colts: Anthony Richardson

Jay: I think there’s a steep gap between the top two QB’s and the next two, but the Colts can’t keep going with one year vets. If you’re going to gamble on a quarterback, I say gamble on the one with the best physical traits maybe ever. Richardson’s new coach did a great job scheming for Jalen Hurts and a read option with Jonathan Taylor and Richardson should keep people up at night.

#5 Seahawks: Jalen Carter

Alex: I think they're tempted at QB here, but they just gave Geno a big deal and with QB in limbo in SF, I think they see an opportunity in the division. Jalen Carter has had some off the field issues, but in the NFL there is a issues-skill chart that allows you to have more issues the more skilled you are. He is so skilled that I think teams will look past his issues just to get him in the building. He is a game wrecker from the interior and can anchor a dominant defense.

#6 Lions: Devon Witherspoon

Jay: Next mock we will talk corners, but this week I’m going with Witherspoon. The man is a tone setter from the backend of the defense and specializes in man-to-man. I think he will bond with Coach Campbell on a spiritual level. Does this give me flashbacks to the Lions continually drafting wide receivers at the top of the draft but now with corners? A little, but they’re important so try and try again.

#7 Raiders: Peter Skoronski

Alex: Protect the investment. I know Jimmy G is likely not the long term answer but the Raiders invested serious money in him and they are trotting out potentially the worst offensive line in the league. What good is having Jimmy G, Josh Jacobs and Devante Adams if the defensive line is in your face the whole game?

#8 Falcons: Tyree Wilson

Jay: We just got word that the Falcons trade for Jeff Okudah so they go defensive line here. As Alex mentioned, he has what looks like the best chance at being a freakish pass rusher. I am curious to see if the Falcons look at Lamar after the draft so they can keep this pick and give up next year's and 2025's 1st round pick instead of this one. Another team with holes to fill so take the consensus top player on the board.

#9 Bears: Jaxson Smith-Njigba

Alex: I am so tempted to get a defensive player here. Their defensive line is potentially the worst in the league, so I stare at Lukas Van Ness for a while before bringing up the ticket for JSN. Right now for the Bears, everything revolves Fields. Yes, they added DJ Moore with their 1st pick trade but give your franchise QB all the weapons and let him flourish. You hired Eberflus to run the defense, let him figure out how to get them up to par.

#10 Eagles: Bijan Robinson

Jay: Let's light this draft on fire. I agree with you looking at Van Ness, or Christian Gonzalez with an aging secondary, but give me the shiny toy. Bijan is that special of a talent to take a running back this high. Jalen Hurts does well when the running game is humming, and defenses do better with the lead, so let's go score points. One thing I would like to see is Hurts could do better at checking down to running backs. When you have Bijan, you have no reason not to flip it to him and pick up those yards after the catch.

#11 Titans: Will Levis

Alex: Tennessee is staring down the barrel of a rebuild, a solid QB prospect just fell into their laps at 11. It is the perfect way to get the ball rolling. Tannehill has had rumors all year long about departing Nashville and Malik Willis has fallen out with the staff. They drafted Treylon Burks with their first pick last year, get him his QB of the future and build off of that duo.

#12 Texans: Paris Johnson Jr.

Jay: Always have to protect the franchise. Stroud already trusts Johnson, so that will be nice, and the dude is versatile on the offensive front. The Texans are all about the Buckeyes in this mock.

#13 Jets: Lukas Van Ness

Alex: The Jets could go so many ways here but I think we should go best front 7 available, and that is Van Ness. I think Van Ness next to Quinnen Williams could cause a lot of issues for interior offensive lineman. Williams will allow Van Ness to get 1 on 1 matchups for the majority of the game, Van Ness should win a handful of those and become a valuable defender.

#14 Patriots: Christian Gonzalez

Jay: The slide stops here. The Hoodie loves to build his defense around a stud corner, and he gets a long, athletic marvel here. Football is fun when New England is good so hopefully they can build another vaunted defense, starting with Gonzalez.

#15 Packers: Brian Branch

Alex: Another team that can go a multitude of directions. They could slap Rodgers in the face and take a QB, but I think they build off of last years draft where they took a LB and DT in the first round. Shore up the back end with a do it all safety like Branch. He can play in the box or cover the deep middle for you.

#16 Commanders: Joey Porter Jr.

Jay: Apparently I love drafting corners. Porter Jr. brings his dad's physicality and mindset to the corner position, for better and worse. I love the length and the brashness, but he will get burnt badly sometimes. What the Commanders really need is for Bezos to buy them but they can settle with a young stud corner, something every team wants.

#17 Steelers: Broderick Jones

Alex: Steelers are punching air for missing out on Porter Jr but Jones is not a bad consolation prize. Kenny Pickett had a rocky beginning of his career but showed some promise towards the end of last year, so lets get him a tackle that can hopefully protect his back for years. Jones is a massive, athletic tackle with some serious upside. Steelers haven't had a franchise tackle in forever, that streak should end here.

#18 Lions: Michael Mayer

Jay: Ironic that the Lions would take a first round tight end after trading their last one just a season ago? Mayer is a great blocker and a good threat in the red zone, something that whoever is playing quarterback for the Lions over the coming years will appreciate. He also fits the culture of the team well, something that Detroit stresses more than some teams.

#19 Buccaneers: Calijah Kancey

Alex: The Bucs are another team that is in a weird spot. Disappointing season last year, immense talent on the roster (although aging) and don't really know what to do at QB. So, lets just make it simple and grab, who we believe is the best player on the board. Undersized but explosive, would make an incredible interior pair with Vita Vea.

#20 Seahawks: Myles Murphy

Jay: Seahawks getting Carter and Murphy in the first round would be a huge win for a defense that was really bad up front last year. Murphy fits the prototype of big and long defensive ends that have spent time in Coach Carroll's defenses and there is not better way to start your career than next to a giant in the middle. A+ draft in the PNW.

#21 Chargers: Deonte Banks

Alex: Chargers have revamped their team over the past few years and in a division with Patrick Mahomes, you need to be able to get to the QB and guard receivers. Banks tested off the charts at the combine, so he has the physical traits to become great. Staley should be able to get the most out of him and create a solid secondary down in LA.

#22 Ravens: Quentin Johnston

Jay: I know the Ravens just signed OBJ and they are in a standoff with Lamar, but what better way to mend the fences than to double down on your investment in some pass catchers? I thought about Jordan Addison, but having a big, explosive body in Johnston compliments the route running and hand catching of OBJ quite well. You want a diversified receiving core and they now have two really good ones to build on.

#23 Vikings: Jordan Addison

Alex: Minnesota desperately needs a 2nd WR option, Addison would fit that role perfectly. Yes, there are so many other holes on this team but being able to trot out Jefferson, Hockenson, Cook and Addison will put the fear of god in any defensive coordinator.

#24 Jaguars: Darnell Wright

Jay: This dude will be a Duval favorite by the time his career is over. He has the five star pedigree, is a massive human being, and has good experience in the SEC. He can be a bit over aggressive, but Lawrence needs help and having an offensive lineman who has the mean streak is always good.

#25 Giants: Zay Flowers

Alex: Another weapon needy team gets their guy falling in the draft to them. Flowers is a quick burst guy who fits in well with Danny Dimes play style.

#26 Cowboys: Darnell Washington

Jay: I think a tight end is going to leave the first round with a star on his helmet, and I am picking Washington. He will be able to block well when they run duo or can set the edge since they are having more speed in the backfield. I love Kincaid personally, but I think Washington is the fit here.

#27 Bills: Bryan Breese

Alex: The WRs are off the board which is a huge hit for the Bills. We could also look for another corner but we just grabbed one last year and you can never have enough pass rush, so we're going to take Bryan Breese. Breese can play at the edge or as a special 3 tech on pass rushing downs. Him and Oliver would make a nice passing down interior duo.

#28 Bengals: Dalton Kincaid

Jay: A lot of ways we could go here, and I considered Dawand Jones, but give Joe Brrrrr another weapon. He had a great receiving tight end his Heisman-winning season and Kincaid is the best pass catching tight end in the draft. Go watch the USC game from this past season and tell me he is not the right pick here. Burrow does need more help but he seems fine taking shots so let's keep giving him weapons.

#29 Saints: Nolan Smith

Alex: We talked about him earlier and yes I said I didn't love him but that doesn't mean that Nolan Smith is not a first round prospect. The Saints lost Marcus Davenport this offseason and now have a hole opposite of Cameron Jordan. This would be a great situation for Smith to be able to learn from amazing vets on that defense, like Cam Jordan, Demario Davis and Tyrann Mathieu as well as a defensive head coach.

#30 Eagles: Kelee Ringo

Jay: I gave the Eagles a vanity pick the first time because they have such a good roster and Bijan is a ceiling raiser. Here, we go for an area of need. The Eagles have a great defense but it is getting older. Let's take the hero of Georgia's national title two years ago. He has amazing traits but is rather inconsistent. I think a year or two with all the Eagles vets makes sense, and gives him room to play aggressively knowing he has other corners playing consistently.

#31 Chiefs: Jahmyr Gibbs

Alex: This is purely a luxury pick. We just won the Super Bowl and just want to get more dangerous. Gibbs would be so fun in this offense, he would give them a legit running threat and is serviceable out of the backfield on passing plays. Him and Pacheco could be a fun pairing.

Draft Prop Bets

Some people buy lottery tickets, some of us bet on the NFL draft. I am not here to say which one is best for you, just giving out some picks that I like.

1st Pick: CJ Stroud #1 Overall Pick (+300)

After the things McCown and Reich said to Stroud after his Pro Day, I think this is is quite a high number for Stroud. You could hedge and bet him 2nd overall for +150 and have money no matter what, he's going top two.

2nd Pick: o4.5 Quarterbacks drafted in the 1st Round (+148)

I think Hooker could slide up into the end of the first round. Last year's class was weird with quarterbacks falling, but I think the league reverts back with this class.

3rd Pick: Eagles to draft Bijan Robinson (+1600)

I know Howie Roseman is historically against drafting running backs early. But why can't we have an exception to the rule?

4th Pick: Christian Gonzalez 1st corner taken (+150)

Gonzalez is long and can make plays on the ball. Feels a lot like Sauce climbing up last year, I think the Duck is going top 10.

5th Pick: Michael Mayer 1st tight end taken (+150)

I can't believe Mayer is not the favorite here, so I will take the bait. Teams will love his mix of blocking and catching compared to Kincaid's receiving-heavy skills.