Football Season Preview

It's the dog days of summer, but that just means we can sit in an air conditioned room and watch Notre Dame play Navy in Ireland here soon. Football lovers around the world, we are back. 

I appreciate all of you who followed along last year and I hope that this brought some value to your football watching experience (or gave you something to do when you ran out of actual football content but the football week hadn't started yet). This year, we are going to break up the blog into two pieces throughout the week, the first blog will look back at the previous week and the second blog will preview the week ahead. I am also going to throw a few more NFL nuggets in because, like Rob Lowe, I am a lover of the Shield. Lastly, I am going to move everything over to Threads so that way I can add updates and maybe do a few weekend thoughts as the games are happening. Let's dive in!

College Football Predictions and Futures

1. Power Conference Predictions

I don't even know what to call the Power Conferences (traditionally the ACC, SEC, Big Ten, Big 12, and PAC 12) because the PAC 12 is on life support and the winner always comes from the SEC with a Big Ten school sometimes crashing the party. I digress, here are my conference winners:

ACC Championship: Clemson over Florida State

I know, everyone loves the Seminoles this year. I think Lincoln Riley's younger brother Garrett is going to lift up the stagnate Tiger offense and they'll rejoin the national title conversation.

SEC Championship: Alabama over Georgia

I like the new offensive coordinator in Tuscaloosa and I think that they will get back to a more traditional Bama team. It's incredibly disrespectful to pick against Georgia, but might as well.

Big Ten Championship: Michigan over Wisconsin

The update to Wisconsin's offense is going to work, at least for one year, and then we will finally be done with divisions in a conference that is becoming evermore top-heavy. I think Ohio State wins The Game but Michigan wins the conference.

Big 12 Championship: Texas over TCU

Is Texas back? I'll bit and buy in, Quinn Ewers can figure out his footwork and lead the Longhorns back, just like Vince Young did when he beat the Wolverines in the Rose Bowl and promised to come back and beat USC the next year (the most baller move ever).

PAC 12 Championship: Utah over Washington

Everyone is all in on the Trojans this year but I think that defense will still get exposed. The top of the PAC 12 is great, meaning they'll all beat up on each other after everyone on the East Coast has gone to bed and then we will all say the PAC 12 sucks.

2. Minor Conference Winners

Not as many words here, but I do recommend watching small school college football. There are definitely more eccentricities and the uniqueness of the teams and schools are amazing. Here are my winners.

AAC: Tulane

Conference USA: Liberty

MAC: Ohio

Mountain West: Boise State

Sun Belt: Coastal Carolina

3. New Years Six and College Football Playoff Winners

I had to bury these predictions a bit, but this is what you came for. Here is how the big bowls of the post-season go down:

National Champion: Alabama

Saban seemed a little feisty this summer and I think he makes a comeback and beats Michigan in the national title. Sure, he has to replace the first and third picks in the draft, but he won the season after Tua left, so it's happened before.

Semifinal 1 (Rose Bowl): Michigan over Georgia

Semifinal 2 (Sugar Bowl): Alabama over Utah

Peach Bowl: Notre Dame over Tulane

Fiesta Bowl: Ohio State over Washington

Orange Bowl: Clemson over LSU

Cotton Bowl: Texas over Penn State

4. Heisman

Winner: Marvin Harrison Jr.

I know, a non-quarterback? The last one of those was a... wide receiver. On a top team. With a new quarterback after the highly touted quarterback had just left. Do we get a bonus if the new quarterback was Harrison's high school quarterback and will be force feeding him the ball? Count me in.

Dark Horse: KJ Jefferson

KJ was not the problem with Arkansas' up and down season last year. Fully healthy, I think he could put up huge numbers. Maybe an 8-4 record in the SEC West with close to 5,000 yards from scrimmage could convince the voters? May be worth a small future (spoilers).

5. Futures Betting

We got on a heater to close the season last year, maybe we start hot this year? Below are some futures I like. I'll be sure to track these and hopefully we are either hitting them or able to bet off of them as the season goes on.

1st Pick: Notre Dame o9 Wins (+135)

Notre Dame will always have an artificially inflated record with the games against the service academies. Last year they won 8 games with the loss to Marshall, I think this is an easy win or push.

2nd Pick: Purdue o5.5 Wins (+145)

I think Ryan Walters goes bowling in his first season. He pulled in a ton of talent through the transfer portal, Hudson Card will have a lot of easy completions in Graham Harrell's offense, and they play in the Big Ten West. I'll take the plus money.

3rd Pick: Auburn u6.5 Wins (+115)

Hugh Freeze gets welcomed back to the SEC West with away games at College Station and Death Valley. I think there is a chance he can go bowling, but I think it will be with a six win season.

4th Pick: Michigan (+165) and Ohio State (+165) to Win the Big Ten

History tells us one of these teams will win the Big Ten. You also will likely not get this good of odds in a ML bet for the Big Ten title. You could place both bets and come out ahead if either wins. Penn State (+600) is also a third team you could bet and somehow make money if any of the three win, but we will opt for the higher return of just betting two.

5th Pick: Marvin Harrison Jr. (+2000) and KJ Jefferson (+8000) to Win the Heisman

There are some insane players above Harrison Jr. (Cade Klubnik) and Jefferson (Joe Milton and Brock Vandagriff) in front of either of these players. If you are going to play the game of throwing darts that is betting Heisman futures I would pick someone like these two., maybe there is a buyout if Arkansas gets off to a hot start?

NFL Predictions and Futures

1. Super Bowl Prediction: 49ers over Chiefs

It feels gross, doesn't it? I always want the better quarterback in the postseason. But Mahomes can't win every Super Bowl for the next 15 years, so I will say he loses this one. If any coach can win one with a system quarterback, I will go with Shanahan winning with his Swiss Army Knife skill position group.

2. Championship Games

AFC: Chiefs over Bengals

Burrow should be okay with the calf injury, and I think that team is shaping up well. Joey B takes a lot of hits, but he usually gets rewarded for standing in the pocket. I think the Chiefs keep hosting AFC Championship Games and win another one.

NFC: 49ers over Vikings

I have enjoyed seeing Kirk Cousins in the Netflix documentary. I think he finally had a receiver he trusted to not go with the checkdown, and I think they make some noise in the postseason. 49ers are just too tough.

3. Division Winners

AFC North: Ravens

AFC East: Jets

AFC South: Jaguars

AFC West: Chiefs

Wild Cards: Bengals, Bills, Chargers

I think the AFC East will be the best division to watch, and I could definitely see every team winning it. Ravens will look awesome in the regular season, but I will still take the Bengals in the playoffs.

NFC North: Vikings

NFC East: Eagles

NFC South: Saints

NFC West: 49ers

Wild Cards: Lions, Seahawks, Giants

The quarterbacks on this side of the league are grim compared to the AFC. But the rosters are nasty. Should be interesting to see the defensive ratings by conference at the end of the year.

4. Awards

MVP: Justin Herbert

Offensive Player of the Year: Garrett Wilson

Defensive Player of the Year: Maxx Crosby

Offensive Rookie of the Year: Jaxon Smith-Njigba

Defensive Rookie of the Year: Devon Witherspoon

I almost went Sauce Gardner for DPOY, which would've lined up the POY and ROY awards. Football is increasingly played on the outside, but that means a defensive end could feast on some sacks. Crosby will get the spotlight in the AFC West to showcase his skills.

5. Futures Betting

NFL bets can be harder to find value in sometimes because the lines are under more scrutiny. But that doesn't stop us from trying, let's see if these beat our friends in the desert.

1st Pick: Justin Herbert MVP (+1300)

The MVP narrative is the most important piece. I think Herbert will have it, with the new offensive coordinator, a new draft pick at wide receiver, and plenty of big games on the schedule.

2nd Pick: Cowboys u10.5 Wins (-135)

When your coach is talking about how scoring less points is better for your team, you may be heading to an interesting spot. I think the Cowboys are over inflated because they want to bait the fans, give me the under.

3rd Pick: Chargers o9.5 Wins (-120)

If Herbert is going to win the MVP, the Chargers have to win games. I'll park in the same garage on this one.

4th Pick: Lamar Jackson u3500.5 Passing Yards (-120)

I love Lamar, I would take him on many teams, this is not a slander. But he has thrown over 3,000 yards once in his career and has some injury problems. It can be hard to not fall back to calling quarterback run plays when winning time approaches. I am cheering for him to break this, but I will hedge against.

5th Pick: Maxx Crosby o11.75 Sacks (+120)

I think the Raiders will be more competent this year, which means they will be in games and allow Maxx to tee off on the passers. I say he gets at least 12 sacks.