College Football Week 5 and NFL Week 4 Preview: 9/28 - 10/2

Thursday, September 28th

What to Watch For

Game of the Day: Lions at Packers

A great rematch from week 18 last year, but no more Rodgers, it's all about the Love. The Lions got back to their game this past week, and the Packers rebounded well from a terrible first half. A big matchup for me is Love versus the Lions pass rush. Having the home game will help, but if Aaron Jones does not play or is limited, the receivers need to get open sooner than they have been.

A Game for the Football Crazies: Middle Tennessee State at Western Kentucky

This game will go a long time because neither team wants to run the ball. If you miss the Mike Leach Wazzu days, this is a game for you. Why run the ball when you can throw a bubble screen? If the NFL primetime game isn't for you, get weird with your Thursday night.

Picks of the Day

Pick: Packers ML (+100) vs Lions

I know the Lions are everyone's darlings, but the Packers have had a pretty good season so far and I like what Jordan Love is up to. It's a coin flip game, I will take the better odds.

Friday, September 29th

What to Watch For

Game of the Day: Utah at Oregon State

I think this is how the PAC-12 slowly starts to cannibalize itself. If Cam Rising is still out, it's a big ask for a freshman quarterback to go to Corvallis against that defense. Cam Ward had his way last weekend, but he has a lot more games under his belt. I think the experience level of the quarterbacks is the difference here.

Most Entertaining Game: Cincinnati at BYU

A classic Big 12 matchup. The Bearcats got their medicine versus the Sooners and BYU on a Friday night will be tough (I can't wait for the dance troop video to go viral, it's on the CFB Bingo Board). Kedon Slovis is still around and has already gotten some good wins for the BYU faithful and he could do so again.

A Game for the Football Crazies: Louisville at NC State

Louisville made headlines with a lineman doing a cartwheel last weekend. Plummer has done a great job executing Brohm's offense and the Wolfpack need to get rolling after not looking great against UVA. Weird things happen in Raleigh at night, I am excited to see what happens.

Picks of the Day

Pick: Oregon State -3.5 (-108) vs Utah

I love the Beavers in this spot. They lost a close game last week, are a forgotten team in the PAC-12, and that physical defense at home will be rough on a freshman quarterback that only scored 14 points last week. I think OSU's offense can move the ball enough to get the win.

Saturday, September 30th

Game of the Day: LSU at Ole Miss

Coming off a loss to Bama and hosting LSU the next week. Life in the SEC West is tough. The Grove will be rocking all day and hopefully the fans get in by game time so Lane isn't upset. Both teams unlock their quarterbacks with the run game and staying on schedule. If one team gets in more 3rd and longs than the other, they will lose. This will be a beautiful uniform matchup too, so that alone is a reason to turn in.

Most Entertaining Game: Kansas at Texas

Will Kansas send off Texas to the SEC with another big win in Austin? This Texas team feels different than every team since 2009, but this is one of those trip up games. Kansas has been developing a football identity and this will not be an easy game. This will either be a statement blowout or a thriller.

A Game for the Football Crazies: Washington at Arizona

RIP PAC-12 After Dark.  Could we get a crazy game to send the league out with? Washington looks like a wagon, but they can't be looking ahead to bigger games later in the season. I may have to stay up for this one.

Picks of the Day

First Pick: Northwestern +27 (-110) vs Penn State

11am CT kickoff in Evanston is the sleepiest game time and ultimate trap game. I am not saying the Wildcats win, but they did beat Minnesota and are showing some fight. Penn State isn't pushing the ball down the field and are winning with strength. I think Northwestern keeps it within 4 touchdowns.

Second Pick: u73.5 (-110) USC vs Colorado

This could feel like a really dumb pick. But this is so many points! USC's defense isn't as good as Oregon's, but CU has to get some things figured out and will still be without their best player. A 10am local kickoff (and 9am for USC's internal clocks) is hard to overcome.

Third Pick: Michigan -17.5 (-110) vs Nebraska

This is a lot of points. But Sims turns the ball over and no one scores on Michigan. Rutgers got lucky on a slant the safety missed the pick on. I think Michigan starts to roll more on offense with Harbaugh back and that defense continues to be a boa constrictor.

Fourth Pick: Alabama -14.5 (-110) vs Mississippi State

If you watched the first half of the Bama game on Saturday, you think this pick is insane. If you watched the second half, you were transported back to the AJ McCarron era of Nick Saban's Alabama tenure. They dominated up front. They ran the ball and took deep shots. That is what Milroe can do, plus he is a great runner. I'm not out on the Tide yet.

Sunday, October 1st

What to Watch For

Game of the Day: Dolphins at Bills

It is a shame this game is in the 1pm slate. But maybe with the great fall weather in Buffalo we see a track meet from two high-powered offenses? What does Vegas know that Buffalo is favored the week after Miami put up the 3rd most points ever? Two things to watch: can Miami heat up Josh Allen and can Buffalo slow down Tyreek Hill?

Most Entertaining Game: Falcons at Jaguars

Both teams took their lumps last week and desperately need wins. This game will be gritty and both teams will want to muck it up a bit. What does Desmond Ridder do after being called out this week? Can the Jaguars be better than 29th on offense?

A Game for the Football Crazies: Patriots at Cowboys

Zeke's homecoming is not the top of the list for most people. But Arizona made the Cowboys slow down and Bill will have something drawn up with all his safeties. Mac Jones is probably going to do something shady against Micah Parsons, but it'll be entertaining seeing if they can hang around.

Picks of the Day

First Pick: Eagles -8 (-108) vs Commanders

No one has been sacked more than Sam Howell. No defense has a better pass rush than the Eagles. Howell does well when he can step up and throw in rhythm. Jordan Davis and Jalen Carter will make that impossible. 

Second Pick: u53.5 (-108) Dolphins vs Bills

I hate this pick, it feels wrong, but it might just work. Last year, the early game between these two teams was the lowest scoring. I think the colder weather games help both teams as bad weather can slow down a pass rush, and it is harder to tackle all the playmakers in the bad weather. So I am going against the consensus and will be cheering against my money.

Monday, October 2nd

What to Watch For

Game of the Day: Seahawks at Giants

It does not seem to be the Giants' year. A home MNF game is huge, but the Seahawks started to figure things out and could really start to roll. Good luck Daniel Jones, I will probably be crying about the Cubs blowing the Wild Card lead instead of watching.

Picks of the Day

Pick: Stay Away

The Giants as favorites is a stinky line for me and I am staying away for the blog, but may play it personally. Congrats on making it to the end of another football weekend.

Season Totals

College Football Picks: 13-15-1 (-1.65 units)

NFL Picks: 5-4-1 (+0.68 units)

Overall: 18-19-2 (-0.97 units)