Thoughts on College Football's Week 9 and NFL Week 8

1. Best of the Week

Best Game: Oklahoma vs Kansas

Anytime we end up with a goal post in a body of water, we know it was the game of the week.

Last week, Oklahoma hung on by the skin of their teeth. This week, they couldn't pull the rabbit out of the hat. An early pick 6, a touchdown with 55 seconds, and a Hail Mary that hit the turf were the three plays that fans will remember after a lightning delay meant this game lasted over four and a half hours. What a great win, good luck in the SEC, Oklahoma.

Best Player: Will Levis (QB) - Titans

Will Levis got his first start of his career yesterday and looked amazing for the Titans, going 19-29 and throwing 4 touchdowns against 0 interceptions. Levis was an interesting draft prospect and when he didn't go in the top 5 he plummeted. For at least one game, he got the last laugh. Is this the changing of the guard in Nashville? It kind of felt like he was a younger, more athletic Ryan Tannehill out there, so I think so.

Best Uniform: Titans

Family photo 📸 pic.twitter.com/OHpi86RowW

— Titans (Oilers Version) (@Titans) October 29, 2023

I wanted to do a tie with the Titans, Seahawks, and Dolphins, but we have to make tough decisions. The throwbacks were looking amazing on Sunday. But this photo seals the deal for me. The Columbia blue, the red cleats and facemasks, the October sky. I will eat it up all day. 

2. Chaos on Saturday

We talked last week about how many great teams were left and how we wish there was a college football playoff expansion this year. This weekend was a reminder of the insanity of the sport. Oklahoma took their first loss, Utah their second, and Washington looked mortal against a very bad Stanford team. Is this where the PAC 12 starts eating themselves alive? Washington has a tough trip to USC coming up, can they keep the jets humming on that offense? The ACC is a one-team league, but the Seminoles can't afford a misstep. If Alabama takes their second loss of the season in their game against LSU they're likely out. But will we let in both Ohio State and Michigan if Michigan looses to Ohio State at home? Buckle up.

3. Defenses on Sunday

Checking NFL scores this season takes me back to the 2000's when Ray Lewis, Zach Thomas, Brian Urlacher, and other hulking linebackers feasted on a steady diet of duo and iso and the games were punt fests. I thought we were in the age of amazing offenses?! It was hard to foresee the pendulum swinging back with all the rule changes, but there are some freakshows playing defensive line and defensive back nowadays. What will be the rebuttal by offenses to combat the new defensive wave? Everyone loves the 2-3 tight end sets, but look at the franchise tags; would you rather be a defensive end or a tight end in today's NFL?

4. Midpoint Awards

We are around the midpoint of the college football and NFL seasons, so let's hand out some awards and make some predictions that will go wrong.

College

National Champion: Georgia

Other CFP Teams: Michigan, Washington, Florida State

Georgia made a statement on Saturday, destroying Florida in Jacksonville. I have concerns about what their offense is without Brock Bowers, but clearly they can still ball out. The winner of Michigan vs Ohio State is in as long as Michigan survives the trip to Penn State. I have concerns that the PAC 12 and ACC will eat their top teams alive here, as they have a ton of conference depth that the Big Ten lacks. We will see what happens here in November.

Heisman: Michael Penix Jr. (QB) - Washington

Caleb Williams has thrown some duds, but the Heisman stays out west. Michael Penix Jr. has been the MVP of the Washington team, has an insane completion percentage and the highest average yards per attempt. He is asked to be an NFL quarterback and his processing and arm are next level. He beats out the other favorite, JJ McCarthy, because he has actually played real opponents and throws the ball in the 4th quarter.

NFL

Super Bowl Champion: Chiefs

Conference Winners: Chiefs over Bills (AFC) Eagles over 49ers (NFC)

Flipping the winners of the conference championships, but sticking with the same final four. The 49ers have been banged up recently, but they will get right. I think the Eagles' front 7, particularly the push they get in the middle, makes the difference in why they make it back for a rematch of last year.

At the end of the day, I just trust Mahomes the most, despite the terrible loss on Sunday. I think Hurts has been okay, I don't like the new offense as much as it's not super diversified. It feels like when you play Madden and you figured out the four verticals slot seam route would be open every time so that receiver gets 300 yards and 5 TD's. AJ Brown is amazing, but I think they need more diversity of passing plays since this is real life.

MVP: Tyreek Hill (WR) - Dolphins

Another non-QB. Hill is so talented, so fast, and strikes complete fear in opposing teams. He is the engine of that potent Dolphins offense. I am not sure how to cover him, bracketing him is impossible, and if he is in motion you can see the panic the other team has. If he breaks 2k receiving yards, and each QB keeps having some downer games, look out.

5. Play of the Week

Oregon went into Utah and beat them at their own game. They were physical at the point of the attack and super efficient. I have expressed doubts in relying so heavily on the RPO for passing, but I think it lends itself to the "modern" triple option attack quite well with them. Below is a play that shows a lot of concepts discussed in the blog all wrapped up into one.

• First off, we see Oregon puts 4 skill players on the short side of the field with a running back (dot 1) a tight end (dot 2) and two receivers (dot 4). This overloads the defense, the tight end gives width to the offensive line on the backside of a running back run play, and puts a premium on executing in tight spaces.
• Utah has a 3-4 defense setup. Dot 3 highlights that the last down lineman is inside the tight end and they have a backer over him.
• The defensive backs look like they're in cover 1 with a free safety but the corners (dots 5 and 6) are facing the quarterback, not typical in man. Utah is clearly worried about the run threat of Bo Nix and wants everyone to be able to rally to a run.

• Oregon snaps the ball and Nix reads the end man on the line of scrimmage while placing the ball in the stomach of the running back (dot 1). He has to decide whether to hand it off or keep it himself.
• The last down lineman (dot 2) collapses down the backside as the tight end engages the up linebacker. This is great communication on who to leave unblocked to give a defined read for Nix. Since the end man collapses down, Nix pulls the ball and gives up on the first "option".
• Rather than having a traditional pitch man for the third option if Nix doesn't keep it himself, the outside receiver of Oregon turns, steps towards the sideline, and prepares to catch the ball.
• The corners are still aware of Nix and looking inside (dot 4), which opens up an outside lane for the third option.

• The linebacker the tight end is blocking (dot 1) steps inside and Nix gives up on the idea of running himself (the second option). The receiver (dot 2) raises his hand to give Nix a big target to find.
• The slot receiver blocks the defender over him (dot 3) and the outside corner is getting caught looking inside. This is that execution in tight spaces we talked about.

• The corner who was looking inside is a step late and the only person with a shot at getting a tackle. If he misses, it's a walk-in for the final 3 yards.

• This picture encapsulates the game. Oregon matched the physicality of Utah and out-executed them. Face plant.