The Working Man's Guide to the NFL Draft

The NFL Draft is upon us! It truly is incredible how the NFL has turned a pretty boring event into must-watch television and a lot of football sicko's favorite night of the spring. The draft machine is huge with Combine coverage, mock drafts, podcasts, and film breakdowns. Most people don't have a herding dog they walk 3 miles a day to listen to draft podcasts nor are they training for a spring triathlon in Ann Arbor, giving themselves plenty of time to watch YouTube clips and breakdowns on the bike trainer. 

So here is a synopsis of the draft machine so you can be ready for next Thursday night. Most mock drafts are worthless because of how many trades happen now compared to the past, so we will spare you that and just give you little nuggets so when you FaceTime your friend after their pick or text the group chat you can have little comments to throw in that make it seem like you are Mel Kiper the Third.

1. New Coaches and Front Offices Add Intrigue

There was a lot of turnover this off-season for head coaches and general managers. I think this makes the draft more fun, not only on Thursday night, but in the later rounds. Right away, what type of quarterback do the Commanders want with the second pick? Bill Belichick would have traded down with the third pick, but will the new-look Patriots stay put and take a quarterback? The Vikings at eleven have a giant "Open for Business" sign out to the Cardinals at four and the Chargers at five, but it takes two to tango.

I personally think that will be the most fun part of the first round because Cardinals could stay put for Marvin Harrison Jr., which could mean that Jim Harbaugh gets to decide if his former signal caller, JJ McCarthy, is a Viking or perhaps he trades with Sean Payton's Broncos to send him to Denver. I will give Harbaugh credit. Most coaches talk about winning in the trenches and then try to get all the flashy outside players, but not Jim. He has doubled down on fortifying the run game and building a physical team. While I could see it making sense to at least have one good receiver on the team, he may want a tackle. The tackle will be there at eleven or twelve, but the receiver will not. Will he stick to his guns?

With teams potentially trading up, there could be a lot of teams that eat in the middle rounds of the draft, which is a great way to build a cost-effective roster for the future... if you can hit on the picks. Do we see teams that have expensive and / or baren rosters trade back, get a ton of picks, and try to reset? Look out for Jaguars, Titans, Bills, and Broncos to name a few to consider trying that approach.

2. Quarterbacks, Quarterbacks, Quarterbacks

The draft always starts with the signal callers and we have four of them likely to go quite early. Let's briefly run through them:

Caleb Williams: Last year, he was viewed as a generational talent coming off a Heisman win. He is still the favorite, but people had time to start poking holes in his game (and his painted finger nails) in a season where he was surrounded by less talent and had a defense that routinely gave up 40+ points. Oh, and he still had an insane stat line of 30 TD's versus 5 INT's. He will go first overall to the Bears and I think he should. Enjoy his Heisman highlights, and see how he can play on schedule when he has receivers that he trusts. His pro comparison to me is young Aaron Rodgers.

Jayden Daniels: Daniels was not considered a top quarterback prospect through four seasons as a starter between Arizona State and LSU but he exploded to a Heisman winning season during his fifth year and is now widely considered quarterback two. He can push the ball deep and outside and is quite the scrambler who has jets to house 95 yard runs. Daniels is not consistent in the middle of the field and working through progressions, but you can have a great offense with deep shots holding safeties back and him scrambling into that space. He reminds me of RG3 or a slighter Justin Fields. Watch his Florida highlights from last year, when he was the first college player to ever throw for 350+ yards and run for 200+. Insane.

Drake Maye: This is my QB2 but seems to be the QB3 now in the draft world. Maye had an amazing redshirt freshman season, but struggled to recreate the magic with a lesser supporting cast in his sophomore year. I think those concerns are overblown, but it is concerning how often he tries to put the Superman cape on and make insane plays. But man, the dude can make plays. I see a lot of Justin Herbert and Trevor Lawrence in his game and I like the size and raw athletic ability. Check out some of these plays, particularly the Pitt highlights 3 minutes in where he throws a TD pass with his left hand and then uncorks a bomb on a post with no hitch.

JJ McCarthy: College fans are certainly surprised that JJ is flying up the board based on his play, but the kid is a leader and can operate the Shanahan offense like nobody's business. He lives in the middle of the field, throwing crossers and in routes off play action. He is also a good athlete, which makes people excited for his upside above a common comparison to Kirk Cousins. The hard part is he does not do a good job on deep throws or out breaking routes, which limits the upside. But if you are a Kevin O'Connell or Sean Payton, you may want a guy who can operate your superior offensive scheme and protect the football. JJ can do that.

So who is going to be the best? My money would be on Caleb Williams and whoever falls to the Vikings. It's a total dodge of a question, but hear me out. The Commanders don't have a ton of play makers or a great offensive line same with the Patriots. Caleb Williams will have DJ Moore and Keenan Allen (and maybe another receiver at nine?) and the Vikings will have Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison, with KOC calling plays. The situation matters a lot in quarterbacking, so that is my take.

After the top four, there are three guys to watch towards the end of round 1 and then during day 2. Michael Penix Jr. seems destined to be a Raider, Bo Nix a Bronco, and Spencer Rattler has some wow throws. If you need a backup or a stop gap starter, look towards these guys.

3. The Premier Positions Have Depth... Except for Edge Rusher

Whenever you think about the top of the draft you think about four positions besides the quarterbacks. Those are wide receiver, offensive tackle, corner, and edge rusher. Those are the sexy positions that we all want to see our teams get (and you can never have too many). Of those positions, only edge rusher does not have a lot of top prospects. The best edge rusher is UCLA's Laiatu Latu, who had to medically retire from football at Washington. This means that Alabama's Dallas Turner, Florida State's Jared Verse, or Penn State's Chop Robinson will likely be the first pass rusher off the board in the middle of the first round. As for the other positions, let's dive in.

Wide Receiver: Unless you live under a rock, you have heard about Marvin Harrison Jr. He is the son of a Hall of Famer and is built from a lab. At 6'4", he is still the best route runner in the class. The next two receivers, LSU's Malik Nabers and Washington's Rome Odunze, will be off the board by the ninth pick at the latest, and if you want a burner you take Nabers and if you want a big, physical receiver you take Odunze. Then there is a drop to the receivers that will go later in the first round or on day 2. A lot of good NFL receivers come in this range because all of these guys have traits that are signs of greatness, they are just not the complete package of the top three. You could go Inconsistent Freak (Adonai Mitchell), Big Burners (Brian Thomas Jr., Xavier Legette), Basketball Players (Keon Coleman), Skinny and Fast (Xavier Worthy, Troy Franklin), or Technicians (Ladd McConkey, Roman Wilson, Ja'Lynn Polk, Ricky Pearsall, Jalen McMillan). As you can see, there is plenty of meat on the bone.

Offensive Tackle: I think the middle of the first round will have a flurry of tackles come off the board, similar to 2021's draft. Teams like the Chargers will trade down and other teams will look to move up to get their guys. Tackle is one of my favorite positions when it has depth because every team will have their guy and their boards will look drastically different than all the draft experts that mock for a living. So you will hear dudes that are listed in the 40's going higher. Have no fear, teams do this for a living and probably know more than us. Olumuyiwa Fashanu, Joe Alt, Troy Fautanu, Taliese Fuaga, JC Latham, Amarius Mims, Graham Barton, Tyler Guyton, Kingsley Suamataia, Jordan Morgan, and more will likely be off the board by the end of the second round. That is a lot of meat and potatoes.

Corner: With all those receivers, we need a lot of corners who can cover them. At the top, it is a debate between Toledo's Quinyon Mitchell and Alabama's Terrion Arnold. I love having a MAC player against Saban's last class of corners (Kool-Aid McKinstry will also go in the first round). Clemson's Nate Wiggins will also go in the first round along with Iowa's Cooper DeJean, who rose to fame for being named as the white player that could cover Tyreek Hill in Rashard Mendenhall's hypothetical White vs. Black football game.

We’d get cooked at corner, not gonna lie.

Nobody on our squad is covering Tyreek 😂 https://t.co/CLCugkM4LS

— JJ Watt (@JJWatt) December 18, 2023

On day 2, I am excited to see who takes Michigan's Mike Sainristil. Sainristil is a converted wide receiver and the best slot corner to come out in years. He can blitz, and had six interceptions for the national champions. With teams increasingly playing nickel as their base defense, I think slot corners will increasingly become more wanted picks.

4. Brock Bowers Could Be Your Team's Mid Life Crisis

A tight end is compared to a sports car that a balding man buys? Let me explain. Bowers is SPECIAL at tight end, being the focal offensive weapon for Georgia's two national titles. He reminds people of George Kittle with less blocking, but I think that is underselling his blocking because he often was compared to teammate and human mountain, Darnell Washington in that category. He can certainly play "attached" to the line, unlike former highly drafted tight end, Kyle Pitts. 

But what makes him special is you can run designed plays to get him the ball because he can outrun everyone on the field even as he is bigger than the secondary. Look at this jet sweep he houses for Georgia:

A top 10 pick gets ~$5M per year. The franchise tag for a receiver is more than $20M and the tag for the tight end is closer to $12M. There is more value in getting a top receiver. But Bowers might be so good he tilts the calculus for a team early in the first round.

5. A Few Longshot Bets

Let me reiterate that these are longshots; none of them may hit. But a lot of people like to have skin in the game and I think all of these are plausible, so see if something hits.

1st Pick: U4.5 QB's Take in the 1st Round (+168) (FanDuel)

I don't think that Penix Jr. or Nix goes in the 1st round. You could hedge this by betting either of them (Penix Jr. is +105 and Nix is +125 on DraftKings) so you could make money either way.

2nd Pick: Malik Nabers 1st WR Drafted (+300) (DraftKings)

I don't think this one hits, but some people have said that a lot of teams have Nabers as WR1. If the Cardinals trade out, maybe a Buckeye is too much for Harbaugh to stomach at 5 or something else crazy happens.

3rd Pick: Indianapolis Colts 1st Pick Being a WR (+225) (DraftKings)

I know people want them to get a corner. But we are seeing teams trying to surround their young quarterbacks with as much talent as possible (see: Houston, Chicago) and I could see the Colts doing the same thing to make sure Richardson is a success.

Post Draft Pick: Either Marvin Harrison Jr. Malik Nabers, or Rome Odunze for Offensive Rookie of the Year (Whoever has the best odds post-draft)

On Sunday, after the draft, bet whoever of the top three receivers has the best odds for OROTY. It's a position that transitions well to the league and all three are pretty close in evaluation, so take the longshot.